Table 1 Estimates of parameters used in the model

λ_a,t, age- and time-dependent force of HBV infection

Table S1 and Figure S2: base-case sets

Table S1 and Figure S2: 95% confidence interval sets

Uniform

q_a, age-dependent proportion of acute HBV infections that become chronic

[20]

  < 1 year

0.3

 ± 20%

Uniform (0.24, 0.36)

Uniform (0.2, 0.3)

Uniform (0.048, 0.072)

Uniform (0.032, 0.048)

 1 − 5 years

0.25

 6 − 19 years

0.06

  ≥ 20 years

0.04

r, rate of chronic HBV infections that become immune (HBV clearance)

0.01

0.005–0.02

Triangular (0.005, 0.01, 0.02)

[21, 22]

d_Aa, age-dependent mortality of acute HBV infection

Based on the age-specific risks of symptomatic infection and fulminant hepatitis and the fatality rate of fulminant hepatitis [23, 24]

  < 1 year

0.000007

 ± 50%

Uniform (0.0000035, 0.0000105)

 1 − 5 years

0.00042

Uniform (0.00021, 0.00063)

  ≥ 6 years

0.00126

Uniform (0.00063, 0.00189)

d_Ca, age-dependent mortality of cirrhosis

Age-specific HBV-related cirrhosis mortality curve

 ± 50%

Uniform

[23]

d_Ha, age-dependent mortality of hepatocellular carcinoma

Age-specific HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma mortality curve

 ± 50%

Uniform

[23]

v_t, vaccine coverage of newborns in 2006 and beyond

0.94

0.9 − 0.98

Normal (0.94, 0.020408)

[12,13,14,15]

p_t, vaccine protection against HBV infection in 2006 and beyond^a

0.95

0.92 − 0.98

Normal (0.95, 0.015306)

[16,17,18]

θ_a,t, catch-up vaccine coverage during 2009 − 2011 in children born between 1994 and 2001 who missed the routine vaccination

0.95

0.9 − 0.97

Uniform (0.9, 0.97)

[25]

ε, HBV intrauterine infection rate in infected pregnant women

0.03

0.02 − 0.035

Triangular (0.02, 0.03, 0.035)

[26,27,28]