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Table 5 Determinants of out-migration in a rural area in South Africa by gender (N = 69 604) 

From: Predictors of migration in an HIV hyper-endemic rural South African community: evidence from a population-based cohort (2005–2017)

Category

HR

95% CI

aHR

95% CI

HR

95% CI

aHR

95% CI

Female

Male

N = 38 372

N = 30 612

Age category: [≥ 40y]

15-19y

4.32***

4.11 – 4.55

2.32***

2.18 – 2.47

2.18***

2.06 – 2.31

1.80***

1.68 – 1.92

20-24y

6.81***

6.49 – 7.15

3.37***

3.19 – 3.57

4.50***

4.27 -4.75

2.86***

2.69 – 3.04

25-29y

5.12***

4.86 – 5.39

2.43***

2.29 – 2.58

3.61***

3.41 – 3.83

2.17***

2.04 – 2.32

30-34y

3.49***

3.29 – 3.70

1.76***

1.65 – 1.88

2.48***

2.32 – 2.64

1.52***

1.41 – 1.63

35-39y

2.38***

2.22 – 2.55

1.39***

1.29 – 1.49

2.07***

1.92 – 2.22

1.37***

1.27 – 1.48

Education status: [Primary]

None

1.31***

1.22 – 1.40

0.92

0.86 – 0.98

0.94***

0.87 – 1.00

0.85***

0.80 – 0.91

Secondary

2.72***

2.57 – 2.88

1.26***

1.19 – 1.34

1.82***

1.72 – 1.92

1.22***

1.16 – 1.29

Tertiary

2.11***

1.95 – 2.29

1.29***

1.19 – 1.40

1.40***

1.28 – 1.53

1.20***

1.09 – 1.31

Unknown Educational status

1.87***

1.75 – 2.01

0.88***

0.82 – 0.94

1.35**

1.27 – 1.44

0.93**

0.87 – 0.99

Marital status: [Currently Married]

Single

5.18***

4.81 –5.57

2.49***

2.30 – 2.69

3.97***

3.68 – 4.28

2.04***

1.87 – 2.22

Separated/Divorced

0.72***

0.64 – 0.80

0.96

0.86 – 1.08

0.97

0.77 – 1.21

1.08

0.86 – 1.35

Unknown marital status

5.98***

5.53 – 6.47

3.15***

2.88 – 3.45

3.03***

2.78 – 3.29

2.00***

1.82 – 2.21

HIV status: [HIV-]

HIV + 

2.79***

2.66 – 2.93

2.44***

2.33 – 2.57

2.26***

2.11 – 2.42

2.54***

2.36 – 2.73

Unknown HIV status

4.87***

4.68 – 5.06

4.18***

4.03 – 4.34

4.23***

4.06 – 4.41

4.05***

3.89 – 4.23

ART coverage

ART%

2.64***

2.44 – 2.87

0.91***

0.83–0.99

0.97

0.88 – 1.07

0.73***

0.66 – 0.82

  1. aHR (Adjusted Hazard Ratio), SE (Standard error) ART (Antiretroviral Therapy), Confidence intervals (CI), HR (Hazard ratio), HIV- (HIV Negative) HIV + (HIV positive). Final models were adjusted for age, educational attainment, marital status, HIV status and community ART coverage
  2. ***p < 0.05 [Reference category in brackets]