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Table 2 All-cause and NCD mortality trends in Latvia in 2020 compared to the average from 2015 to 2019: Joinpoint regression analysis

From: Excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in Latvia: a population-level analysis of all-cause and noncommunicable disease deaths in 2020

Years

# Joinpoints

Joinpoint week

(95% CI)

WPCa

(95% CI)

AWPCb

(95% CI)

All-cause mortality

Test for coincidence: p<0.001; Test for parallelism: p<0.001

   

-0.22 (-0.64–0.19)

 
  

13 (7–16)

  

2015–2019

  

-2.65* (-4.88– -0.37)

-0.15 (-0.42–0.13)

 

3

18 (14–26)

  
   

-0.46* (-0.79– -0.14)

 
  

34 (30–39)

  
   

0.90* (0.65– 1.15)

 
   

-0.32* (-0.48– -0.15)

 

2020

1

40 (36–43)

 

0.62* (0.38–0.86)

   

3.72* (2.82–4.63)

 

Circulatory diseases (I10–I16; I20–I25; I60–I69)

Test for coincidence: p<0.001; Test for parallelism: p<0.001

   

-0.31 (-1.14–0.53)

 

2015–2019

2

10 (5–17)

  
   

-1.43* (-1.68–-1.17)

-0.17 (-0.38–0.03)

  

32 (29–34)

  
   

1.28* (1.00–1.57)

 
   

-0.50* (-0.72–0.27)

 

2020

1

40 (33–43)

 

0.40* (0.06–0.74)

   

3.36* (2.04–4.69)

 

Malignant neoplasms (C00–C97)

Test for coincidence: p<0.05

2015–2019

  

-0.33* (-0.57–0.09)

 
 

1

25 (16–39)

 

-0.03 (-0.19–0.12)

   

0.23* (0.03–0.43)

 

2020

0

 

0.08 (-0.08–0.24)

0.08 (-0.08–0.24)

Test for parallelism: p=0.55

   

-0.28* (-0.51– -0.06)

 

2015–2019

and 2020 combined

1

24 (15–35)

 

-0.02 (-0.16–0.12)

   

0.20* (0.03–0.37)

 

Diabetes (E10–E14)

Test for coincidence: p<0.001; Test for parallelism: p<0.001

2015–2019

0

 

-0.30* (-0.59– -0.01)

-0.30*(-0.59– -0.01)

2020

0

 

0.83* (0.34–1.32)

0.83* (0.34–1.32)

Chronic lower respiratory diseases (J40–J47)

Test for coincidence: p=0.465; Test for parallelism: p=0.381

   

-1.85* (-2.63– -1.06)

 

2015–2019 and 2020 combined

1

29 (23–38)

 

-0.70* (-1.36– -0.03)

   

0.73 (-0.41– 1.88)

 
  1. a WPC – weekly percent change; b AWPC – average weekly percent change