DALY Burden Estimates - Base Case | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Estimated DALY loss for each health state | Share of DALY loss for each health state | ||||||||
Doherty Scenario | 2C | 2D | 3B | 3C | 2020 Actual | 2C | 2D | 3B | 3C | 2020 Actual |
Deaths (no) | 1524 | 948 | 6402 | 6719 | 909 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
COVID cases (no) | 246,399 | 156,799 | 914,357 | 968,154 | 28,696 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Mortality (YLL) | 15,912 | 9898 | 66,844 | 70,154 | 7263 | 72.6% | 72.3% | 74.3% | 73.8% | 82.0% |
Non-fatal YLD: | ||||||||||
 Acute | 558 | 353 | 2069 | 2213 | 69 | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
 Long COVID (ONS) | 4665 | 2981 | 17,467 | 18,482 | 565 | 21.3% | 21.8% | 19.4% | 19.4% | 6.4% |
 PICS | 779 | 462 | 3578 | 4198 | 958 | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 10.8% |
 Permanent | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
 Total non-fatal YLD | 6003 | 3797 | 23,114 | 24,843 | 1592 | 27.4% | 27.7% | 25.7% | 26.2% | 18.0% |
 Total DALYs (fatal and non-fatal) | 21,915 | 13,695 | 89,958 | 94,998 | 8855 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |