Skip to main content

Table 2 Summary of observed and predicted-P1+P2 case counts over the first wave, nationally and by geography

From: The local burden of disease during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in England: estimation using different data sources from changing surveillance practices

  Observed, test- confirmed cases
(up to week starting 2020-06-17)
Predicted
(median [98% CrI])
Percentage
difference
England total 231,817 335,083 [275,482 - 418,847] 44.5 [18.8–80.7]
London Borough 33,399 43,664 [35,881 - 51,337] 30.7 [7.4–53.7]
Metropolitan District 64,007 109,717 [95,734 - 129,216] 71.4 [49.6–101.9]
Non-metropolitan District 79,441 97,786 [78,764 - 122,095] 23.1 [−0.9–53.7]
Unitary Authority 54,970 83,723 [67,673 - 110,968] 52.3 [23.1–101.9]