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Fig. 5 | BMC Public Health

Fig. 5

From: The local burden of disease during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in England: estimation using different data sources from changing surveillance practices

Fig. 5

Estimated weekly incidence of infections in England (grey), inferred from predicted-P1+P2 cases (blue) and an assumed detection rate of 25% under expanded surveillance. Rate of detection is estimated by comparison of incidence estimates from the ONS infection survey (shown in red) and observed case counts (shown in black) between weeks starting 18 May to 15 June 2020. This rate is then applied to predicted-P1+P2 cases to obtain the estimated trajectory of total infections

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