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Fig. 3 | BMC Public Health

Fig. 3

From: The local burden of disease during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in England: estimation using different data sources from changing surveillance practices

Fig. 3

Predicted-P1+P2 cases, according to lagged and scaled-up predictions from the selected model for COVID-19-related deaths, in total (A and aggregated by geography type (B). 50–98% credible intervals are shown by the blue shaded areas. Observed totals of confirmed cases per week are indicated by black points - unfilled prior to P2-expansion and filled post-P2 expansion. Predicted-P1+P2 cases suggest the potential shape and magnitude of the first wave peak if community symptomatic testing (pillar 2) - in addition to hospital-based testing (pillar 1) - had been available from the beginning of the epidemic

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BMC Public Health

ISSN: 1471-2458

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