Fig. 2

Final model fit (1000 posterior samples) over time, as a national total and by geography type. The final model describes observed weekly COVID-19-related deaths per LTLA in terms of the size, age, ethnicity and deprivation level of the population, temporal trend and spatial correlation between neighbouring LTLAs. Observed rates of covid-related death per 100,000 population are shown in black (A) and white (B). Each grey/coloured line represents one sampled trajectory from the fitted model, and variation between these reflects uncertainty in the fit