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Table 7 Status of the predicted values of the GM(1,1)model in 2019

From: Epidemiological analysis of varicella in Dalian from 2009 to 2019 and application of three kinds of model in prediction prevalence of varicella

Year

Initial state

transition steps

E1

E2

E3

2018

E1

1 (P1)

0.67

0.33

0

2017

E1

2 (P1)

0.58

0.35

0.07

2016

E2

3 (P3)

0.48

0.42

0.10

sum

  

1.73

1.10

0.17

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BMC Public Health

ISSN: 1471-2458

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