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Table 3 Timing of the exit- Findings from the epidemiological modelling studies

From: Exit strategies from lockdowns due to COVID-19: a scoping review

Sr. No. Country Study Determinants of opening-up Effect on timing for opening-up
1 USA Zhang et al. [16] Peak in number of COVID-19 cases, Current state of the infectious population, and the remaining susceptible population (estimated using epi models) • Prolonged removal of restrictions in the post-peak period has benefits
• Delay in reopening by one month can lead to an average reduction of new cases by 42%.
2 India Gupta et al. [17] Peak in number of COVID-19 cases • Delaying the reopening farther beyond the peak has benefits due to progressive exhaustion of infectious pool in the population
3 Italy Scala et al. [18] Peak in number of COVID-19 cases, Strength of lockdown, Geography • Premature exit before the peak can result in the next wave with a higher peak.
• Increasing the strength of the lockdown can delay the time for opening
• Epidemic dynamics vary between regions and are independent of each other, therefore, lockdown lifting time is to be evaluated regionally.
4 Global Roy [19] Peak in number of COVID-19 cases and health system capacity • Premature exit following a brief reduction in cases can result in quicker, sharper, and higher secondary peak
• Continuing lockdown till the peak reduces to health system capacity level can lead to a secondary peak which is above the health system capacity
• Reopening after the cases have plateaued, and are well below the health system capacity will lead to a much lower secondary peak.
5 UK Nekovee [20] Peak in number of COVID-19 cases Premature lifting of mobility restrictions can result in the return of COVID-19’s exponential growth
6 Italy Li et al. [21] True number of infected cases and relative testing capacity Local testing capacity should be more than 16 times the estimated true number of newly infected cases for opening-up
7 UK Moore et al. [22] Vaccine efficacy, vaccine uptake • Early relaxation of NPIs before sufficient immunity has been achieved can lead to a larger wave of infection
• If all restrictions are removed only after the entire adult population has been offered two doses (assuming vaccine provides 85% protection against infection), there will still be a next infection wave. (Except, when vaccine uptake is 95, 90, and 85% in those aged 80 years and older, 50–79 years, and 18–49 years, respectively)