Table 3 Timing of the exit- Findings from the epidemiological modelling studies
From: Exit strategies from lockdowns due to COVID-19: a scoping review
Sr. No. | Country | Study | Determinants of opening-up | Effect on timing for opening-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | USA | Zhang et al. [16] | Peak in number of COVID-19 cases, Current state of the infectious population, and the remaining susceptible population (estimated using epi models) | • Prolonged removal of restrictions in the post-peak period has benefits • Delay in reopening by one month can lead to an average reduction of new cases by 42%. |
2 | India | Gupta et al. [17] | Peak in number of COVID-19 cases | • Delaying the reopening farther beyond the peak has benefits due to progressive exhaustion of infectious pool in the population |
3 | Italy | Scala et al. [18] | Peak in number of COVID-19 cases, Strength of lockdown, Geography | • Premature exit before the peak can result in the next wave with a higher peak. • Increasing the strength of the lockdown can delay the time for opening • Epidemic dynamics vary between regions and are independent of each other, therefore, lockdown lifting time is to be evaluated regionally. |
4 | Global | Roy [19] | Peak in number of COVID-19 cases and health system capacity | • Premature exit following a brief reduction in cases can result in quicker, sharper, and higher secondary peak • Continuing lockdown till the peak reduces to health system capacity level can lead to a secondary peak which is above the health system capacity • Reopening after the cases have plateaued, and are well below the health system capacity will lead to a much lower secondary peak. |
5 | UK | Nekovee [20] | Peak in number of COVID-19 cases | Premature lifting of mobility restrictions can result in the return of COVID-19’s exponential growth |
6 | Italy | Li et al. [21] | True number of infected cases and relative testing capacity | Local testing capacity should be more than 16 times the estimated true number of newly infected cases for opening-up |
7 | UK | Moore et al. [22] | Vaccine efficacy, vaccine uptake | • Early relaxation of NPIs before sufficient immunity has been achieved can lead to a larger wave of infection • If all restrictions are removed only after the entire adult population has been offered two doses (assuming vaccine provides 85% protection against infection), there will still be a next infection wave. (Except, when vaccine uptake is 95, 90, and 85% in those aged 80 years and older, 50–79 years, and 18–49 years, respectively) |