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Table 6 Model-predicted outcomes under different end-date scenarios of school and workplace closures. Scenario 1: reopen schools and workplaces on Feb 15. Scenario 2: reopen schools and workplaces on Feb 15. Scenario 3 (status quo): reopen schools on Mar 31, workplaces on Feb 29. Scenario 4: reopen schools and workplaces on Mar 31. The “Elderly” are assumed to maintain social distancing through Mar 31. Outcomes are aggregated from Dec 1, 2019 through Mar 31, 2020

From: Optimal timing and effectiveness of COVID-19 outbreak responses in China: a modelling study

 

Chongqing

Beijing

Shanghai

Total COVID-19 deaths - mean (95% credible interval)

Scenario 1

45 (42 - 48)

19 (18 - 20)

14 (13 - 15)

Scenario 2

27 (25 - 28)

12 (11 - 12)

8 (8 - 9)

Scenario 3

26 (25 - 27)

11 (10 - 11)

8 (8 - 8)

Scenario 4

24 (23 - 26)

10 (10 - 11)

8 (7 - 8)

Total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections per 10,000 individuals - mean (95% credible interval)

Scenario 1

24.71 (21.19 - 28.55)

14.95 (12.81 - 17.29)

9.60 (8.23 - 11.10)

Scenario 2

8.57 (7.49 - 9.73)

5.10 (4.46 - 5.80)

3.31 (2.90 - 3.77)

Scenario 3

6.31 (5.58 - 7.11)

3.92 (3.45 - 4.42)

2.56 (2.25 - 2.89)

Scenario 4

3.82 (3.45 - 4.21)

2.23 (2.01 - 2.46)

1.47 (1.33 - 1.62)

Total economic cost, in billion USD - mean (95% credible interval)

Scenario 1

$5.83 (5.80 - 5.87)

$8.48 (8.47 - 8.50)

$9.12 (9.11 - 9.13)

Scenario 2

$8.94 (8.94 - 8.95)

$13.31 (13.31 - 13.32)

$14.36 (14.35 - 14.36)

Scenario 3

$8.94 (8.93 - 8.95)

$13.32 (13.32 - 13.32)

$14.36 (14.36 - 14.36)

Scenario 4

$16.12 (16.12 - 16.13)

$24.13 (24.13 - 24.13)

$26.03 (26.03 - 26.03)