Table 1 Model input parameters and data sources
From: Optimal timing and effectiveness of COVID-19 outbreak responses in China: a modelling study
Variable | Description | Value (range) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
Transmission parameters | |||
βI | per-contact SARS-CoV-2 transmission rate | 3.90% (3.86% - 3.94%) | Calibration |
z | Daily zoonotic force of infection before closure | 86 | Wu et al. [7] |
COVID-19 daily mortality rate in Wuhan, by age category | |||
μ1 | Youth | 0.01% (0.00% - 0.01%) | Calibration |
μ2 | Adult | 0.55% (0.47% - 0.63%) | Calibration |
μ3 | Elderly | 5.61% (5.34% - 5.86%) | Calibration |
Mortality rate reduction for other cities, relative to Wuhan | 85.7% | China CDC [12] | |
Time from symptom onset to death, by age category | |||
μ1 | Youth | 20 days | Wang et al. [13] |
μ2 | Adult | 20 days | Wang et al. [13] |
μ3 | Elderly | 11 days | Wang et al. [13] |
Daily number of contacts, by age category | |||
M1 | Youth | 21 | Estimated from Read et al. [14] |
M2 | Adult | 20 | Estimated from Read et al. [14] |
M3 | Elderly | 15 | Estimated from Read et al. [14] |
Assortative mixing coefficient, by age | |||
γ1 | Youth | 45.7% | Estimated from Read et al. [14] |
γ2 | Adult | 78.0% | Estimated from Read et al. [14] |
γ3 | Elderly | 5.5% | Estimated from Read et al. [14] |
Wuhan age distribution | |||
Youth | 18.89% | National Bureau of Statistics [15] | |
Adult | 68.43% | National Bureau of Statistics [15] | |
Elderly | 12.68% | National Bureau of Statistics [15] | |
Chongqing age distribution | |||
Youth | 24.78% | National Bureau of Statistics [15] | |
Adult | 57.80% | National Bureau of Statistics [15] | |
Elderly | 17.42% | National Bureau of Statistics [15] | |
Beijing age distribution | |||
Youth | 14.07% | National Bureau of Statistics [15] | |
Adult | 73.39% | National Bureau of Statistics [15] | |
Elderly | 12.54% | National Bureau of Statistics [15] | |
Shanghai age distribution | |||
Youth | 13.48% | National Bureau of Statistics [15] | |
Adult | 71.44% | National Bureau of Statistics [15] | |
Elderly | 15.07% | National Bureau of Statistics [15] | |
Proportion of infections that are symptomatic | |||
ρ1 | Youth | 30.3% (5.4% - 65.3%) | Calibration |
ρ2 | Adult | 67.5% (61.8% - 74.3%) | Calibration |
ρ3 | Elderly | 42.8% (39.0% - 46.5%) | Calibration |
Proportion of symptomatic infections that receive clinical confirmation | |||
Youth | 9.5% (3.0% - 25.8%) | Informed from model | |
Adult | 81.9% (69.2% - 94.3%) | Informed from model | |
Elderly | 100% | Informed from model | |
Travel volume in Wuhan (persons per day) | |||
T(w,c)(t) | outbound, normal, | 505,646 | Wu et.al [7] |
T(w,c)(t) | outbound, chunyun, | 720,859 | Wu et.al [7] |
T(c,w)(t) | inbound, normal, | 490,856 | Wu et.al [7] |
T(c,w)(t) | inbound, chunyun, | 814,046 | Wu et.al [7] |
inbound reduction during city-wide quarantine | 95.62% | Baidu database [16] | |
outbound reduction during city-wide quarantine | 92.37% | Baidu database [16] | |
Proportion of outbound Wuhan travel volume arriving in other Chinese cities | |||
Chongqing, normal | 1.27% | Baidu database [16] | |
Beijing, normal | 0.86% | Baidu database [16] | |
Shanghai, normal | 0.66% | Baidu database [16] | |
Chongqing, quarantine | 0.44% | Baidu database [16] | |
Beijing, quarantine | 0.24% | Baidu database [16] | |
Shanghai, quarantine | 0.29% | Baidu database [16] | |
City population size | |||
Wuhan | 19 million | Wu et al. [7] | |
Chongqing | 30.48 million | National Bureau of Statistics [15] | |
Beijing | 21.54 million | National Bureau of Statistics [15] | |
Shanghai | 24.24 million | National Bureau of Statistics [15] | |
Daily cost of mass social distancing | |||
Wuhan | $20.41 million USD | Additional file 1 — Technical Appendix, Section 2 | |
Chongqing | $48.45 million USD | Additional file 1 — Technical Appendix, Section 2 | |
Beijing | $72.66 million USD | Additional file 1 — Technical Appendix, Section 2 | |
Shanghai | $78.37 million USD | Additional file 1 — Technical Appendix, Section 2 | |
Daily cost of Wuhan city-wide quarantine | $522.77 million USD | Additional file 1 — Technical Appendix, Section 2 | |
Daily cost of contact tracing and quarantine, per person | $16.438 USD | Armbruster and Brandeau [17] | |
Health care cost per hospitalized COVID-19 case | $4,124.64 USD | Du et al. [18] | |
Economic cost per non-fatal COVID-19 case | |||
Youth | $395.82 USD | Additional file 1 — Technical Appendix, Section 2 | |
Adult | $3,951.24 USD | Additional file 1 — Technical Appendix, Section 2 | |
Elderly | $462.66 USD | Additional file 1 — Technical Appendix, Section 2 | |
Economic cost per fatal COVID-19 case | |||
Youth | $2,069,041 USD | Additional file 1 — Technical Appendix, Section 2 | |
Adult | $1,142,677 USD | Additional file 1 — Technical Appendix, Section 2 | |
Elderly | $291,130 USD | Additional file 1 — Technical Appendix, Section 2 |