Fig. 1

Model framework. The solid lines (with arrowheads) represent flow from one stage to subsequent stage within the framework (e.g., from being COVID positive to hospitalized). The dashed lines (with arrowheads) represent probabilistic variation due to demographic (i.e., state of residence, race, and age) and health (i.e., hypertension, diabetes, or CVD) factors (e.g., probability of being COVID positive varies by race and rage)