Improving on estimates of the potential relative harm to health from using modern ENDS (vaping) compared to tobacco smoking

Table 2 Health impacts by disease group as a result of modelling a tobacco control intervention (tobacco tax increases) at a national level [23]

Health condition / condition group	Proportion of HALYs gained* from preventing uptake and promoting quitting of smoking (undiscounted)
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)	48.9%
Cancers (12 types**)	28.3%
CVD (coronary heart disease and stroke)	22.4%
Lower respiratory tract infection	0.4%
Total	100%

^* Specifically from a tobacco tax intervention in New Zealand (a 10% per annum increase in tobacco tax from 2011 to 2031 that impacts on both increasing quitting and reducing youth uptake), and values from Table S6 in the of Blakely et al. [23]. The HALYs are for the 2011 population over the remainder of their lifespans. Therefore, many of the health gains are decades into the future. American Cancer Society’s Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS II) relative risks are used in this particular analysis (with results being similar to relative risks calculated from New Zealand studies)
** Cancers in descending order of importance as per the BODE³ preferred model: Lung cancer (26.0%), bladder cancer (1.3%), mouth and oropharyngeal cancer (0.9%), oesophageal cancer (0.9%), liver cancer (0.9%), pancreatic cancer (0.6%), stomach cancer (0.6%), kidney cancer (0.2%), cervical cancer (0.2%), thyroid cancer (0.0%), endometrial cancer (− 0.2%), melanoma (− 0.8%)

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