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Table 2 Performance characteristics of potential indicators of SARS-CoV-2 infection

From: Feasibility and effectiveness of daily temperature screening to detect COVID-19 in a prospective cohort at a large public university

 

Temperature ≥ 100.4 °Fa same day as specimen collection

Temperature ≥ 99.7°Fb same day as specimen collection

Temperature ≥ 98.7°Fc same day as specimen collection

Temperature ≥ 99.7 °F same day or any of 3 days prior to specimen collection

Self-report fever symptoms (i.e., feeling feverish) same day as specimen collection

Self-report COVID-19 symptoms, including feverd same day as specimen collection

Number of PCR positive results with relevant data recorded (out of 60 total)

36

36

36

37

42

42

Number of PCR negative results with relevant data recorded (out of 7612 total)

4294

4294

4294

4487

5415

5415

Number of people with PCR positive results who would have been identified through this indicator

0 / 36

3 / 36

11 / 36

4 / 37

8 / 42

17 / 42

Number of people with PCR negative results who would have been “flagged” per this indicator

4 / 4294

11 / 4294

300 / 4294

25 / 4487

17 / 5415

254 / 5415

 

pt. est.

(95% CI)

pt. est.

(95% CI)

pt. est.

(95% CI)

pt. est.

(95% CI)

pt. est.

(95% CI)

pt. est.

(95% CI)

Sensitivity

0.0%

(0.0–9.7%)

8.3%

(1.8–22.5%)

30.6%

(16.3–48.1%)

10.8%

(3.0–25.4%)

19.0%

(8.6–34.1%)

40.5%

(25.6–56.7%)

Specificity

99.9%

(99.8–100%)

99.7%

(99.5–99.9%)

93.0%

(92.2–93.8%)

99.4%

(99.2–99.6%)

99.7%

(99.5–99.8%)

95.3%

(94.7–95.9%)

PPVe

0.0%

(0.0–59.4%)

21.4%

(7.4–48.6%)

3.5%

(2.2–5.8%)

13.8%

(5.6–30.6%)

32.0%

(17.8–50.9%)

6.3%

(4.4–9.0%)

NPVf

99.2%

(99.1–99.3%)

99.2%

(99.1–99.3%)

99.4%

(99.2–99.5%)

99.3%

(99.2–99.3%)

99.4%

(99.3–99.5%)

99.5%

(99.4–99.6%)

Fisher’s Exact testg p-value

0.0002

< 0.0001

< 0.0001

< 0.0001

< 0.0001

  1. a This was the threshold used for triggering additional testing during the study
  2. b This is one degree above what is conventionally considered “normal” body temp
  3. c This is one degree above the mean temperature for our study participants over the full study period (mean = 97.6 °F)
  4. d For purposes of this analysis, participants were considered “symptomatic” if on their daily survey they reported dry cough, coughing up mucus, fever, sweats, chills, sore throat, difficulty breathing, wheezing, shortness of breath, loss of sense of taste, loss of sense of smell, or at least 3 symptoms from a list of 35 symptoms associated with COVID-19 and other illnesses (see Supplemental Table 1)
  5. e PPV = Positive predictive value
  6. f NPV = Negative predictive value
  7. g Fisher’s Exact test for independence was used, given rare exposure and rare outcome. This tested the null hypothesis that there was no difference in SARS-CoV-2 infection for people who would have been prohibited entry to campus as a result of screening for fever using the strategy in question, and those who would be permitted entry to campus