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Table 1 Parameter settings in the SEIHR(Q) model

From: Investigating the effectiveness of re-opening policies before vaccination during a pandemic: SD modelling research based on COVID-19 in Wuhan

Parameter and definition Value Source and Explanation
c: Contact rate 14.5 Prior to the implementation of the Level-1 emergency response on January 23 [13, 24], the contact rate was approximately 14.5 [25]. After that, the contact rate dropped dramatically and stabilized at a low rate of 4. Since the resumption of work, the value has gone up gradually.
β: Probability of transmission 0.035 The reproduction number R can be calculated as the transmission rate multiplied by the transmission time, which in this model is βc/σ. In Wuhan, the initial R0 was estimated to be approximately 2.67 [26, 27]. Therefore, β can be calculated to be 0.035
σ: Transition rate 0.19 The mean incubation period is 5.2 days [11, 27,28,29,30].
q: Quarantined rate of exposed individuals 0 Initialized as 0 and gradually increased to 0.7 as Level-1 emergency response was implemented [11, 13].
λ: Rate of return from Sq to S 1/14 Estimated based on the recommendation of the Shanghai Municipal Health Commission [31].
δI: Transition rate of individuals in I to the hospitalized group 0.12 The initial value taken from the reference [11] quickly dropped due to abundant medical resources in Wuhan and the acceleration of nucleic acid testing.
δH: Transition rate of individuals in Iq to the hospitalized group 1 Quarantined infected individuals were admitted to the hospital immediately after nucleic acid testing.
μ: Isolation rate of patients at fever clinics 0 No isolation at a fever clinic in Wuhan at the beginning. With the policy of stricter isolation at fever clinics, the value increased to 0.4 and then 0.7 [32].
γI: Recovery rate of individuals in I 0.07 Individuals with mild symptoms or an asymptomatic infection recovered within 14 days on average [11, 12].
γH: Recovery rate of individuals in H 0.01 Model calibration
αI,αH: Death rate 0.004 Model calibration
θ: Infectious weight in incubation period 0.5 Consistent with the reference [11, 12].
q: Percentage of close contacts who are quarantined 0 Initialized as 0 and gradually increased to 0.7 as Level-1 emergency response was implemented [13, 32]..