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Table 2 Outcome metrics based on modeling study under each strategy across varying disease reproductive numbers

From: The impact of phased university reopenings on mitigating the spread of COVID-19: a modeling study

Phased reopening Pre-arrival testing Peak outbreak: size (days to peak)
   Rt = 1.5 Rt = 2.5 Rt = 3.5 Rt = 3.5, 2.5, 1.5 a
No No 948 (42 days) 2014 (28 days) 2660 (22 days) 2660 (22 days)
No Yes 760 (82 days) 1837 (46 days) 2495 (34 days) 2422 (33 days)
Yes Yes 738 (115 days) 1430 (73 days) 1476 (47 days) b 1111 (49 days) b
   Total infections
   Rt = 1.5 Rt = 2.5 Rt = 3.5 Rt = 3.5, 2.5, 1.5 a
No No 4974 6192 6438 6394
No Yes 4562 6151 6425 6261
Yes Yes 3558 6010 6100 4856
   Beds needed for isolation of detected individuals: nbeds (%) c
   Rt = 1.5 Rt = 2.5 Rt = 3.5 Rt = 3.5, 2.5, 1.5 a
No No 336 (4.5%) 704 (9.4%) 916 (12.2%) 916 (12.2%)
No Yes 270 (3.6%) 643 (8.6%) 863 (11.5%) 834 (11.1%)
Yes Yes 263 (3.5%) 513 (6.8%) 415 (5.5%) 397 (5.3%)
  1. Outcome metrics are peak outbreak size (and days to peak outbreak size), total infections, and isolation beds capacity for detected students throughout the semester under three interventions: No phased reopening or pre-arrival testing, pre-arrival testing only, phased re-opening with pre-arrival testing. The size of the on-campus student population is N = 7500
  2. a Improving Rt: R0 = 3.5, R1 = 2.5, and Rt = 1.5 for months t ≥ 2
  3. b Peak outbreak occurred with 2/3’s of student population on campus (i.e, 5000 students)c Proportion of isolation beds needed (nbeds) relative to on-campus student population (N)