Table 1 Model input parameters, assumptions, and references

On-campus population (N)

7500 (assumption)

Time horizon (weeks)

18 weeks

 Mean incubation time, 1/σ

3 days [23]

 Mean asymptomatic infectious time (days), 1/φ

10 days [22]

 Mean symptomatic infection time before detection and isolation (days), 1/γ

3 days (accounting for 2-day pre-symptomatic period and 1-day test turnaround time) [23]

 Isolation time, 1/ρ (days)

10 days [22]

 Proportion of infections that are symptomatic, α

0.4 [18]

Transmission rate, β

Dependent on R_t

Baseline infectious rate (%) ^b

3% [18]

Baseline recovered rate (%)

10% [10, 14, 24]

 Highly effective (best case)

1.5 [5]

 Moderately effective (base case)

2.5 [5]

 Ineffective (worst case)

3.5 [5]

 Time-varying

Month 0: 4; Month 1: 2.5; Month 2+: 1.25 (assumption)

  Sensitivity (%)

90% [5, 25]

  Specificity (%)

100% (assumption)

  Phase 1: Calendar time (months)/sub-population returning to campus

0 months/2500 students (assumption)

  Phase 2: Calendar time (months)/sub-population returning to campus/cumulative population

1 months/2500 students/5000 students (assumption)

  Phase 3: Calendar time (months)/sub-population returning to campus/cumulative population

2 months/2500 students/7500 students (assumption)