Cardiovascular disease (CVD): assessment, prediction and policy implications

BMC Public Health

Table 5 Forecasting cardiovascular deaths in USA

Years	Original Data	NDGM	Cumulative	RGR	RGR Mean	D_t	Mean D_t
2005	857,472	857,472	857,472
2006	842,430	817,100	1,699,903	0.684	0.228	1.072	2.514
2007	827,191	817,591	2,527,094	0.528		1.618
2008	823,970	818,325	3,351,065	0.442		1.958
2009	814,684	819,425	4,165,749	0.219		2.216
2010	805,696	821,073	4,971,446	0.166		2.426
2011	817,311	823,541	5,788,758	0.152		2.546
2012	821,111	827,238	6,609,869	0.135		2.713
2013	830,227	832,776	7,440,096	0.128		2.828
2014	840,356	841,071	8,280,452	0.107		2.928
2015	857,259	853,496	9,137,711	0.089		3.145
2016	880,573	872,107	10,018,285	0.052		3.309
2017	902,270	899,984	10,920,556	0.036		3.414
2018	941,740	942,407	941,740	0.341		2.045
2019	1,004,285	101,248	1,946,025	0.215		2.000
2020		1,097,970	3,043,995
2021		1,238,298	4,282,293	0.124	0.329	3.412	2.193
2022		1,448,492	5,730,785	0.291		2.104
2023		1,763,336	7,494,121	0.468		2.302
2024		2,234,934	9,729,054	0.361		2.431
2025		2,441,328	12,170,382	0.224		2.554
2026		2,999,418	15,169,801	0.320		2.856
2027		3,050,121	18,219,922	0.383		2.935
MAPE %		1.02%

Abbreviations: EGM even grey model, DGM discrete grey model, NDGM nonhomogeneous discrete grey model, RGR relative growth rate, Dt doubling time

ISSN: 1471-2458