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Table 2 Forecasting cardiovascular deaths in India

From: Cardiovascular disease (CVD): assessment, prediction and policy implications

Years

Original Data

NDGM

Cumulative

RGR

RGR Mean

Dt

Mean Dt

2005

1,653,599

1,653,599

1,653,599

    

2006

1,734,072

1,722,462

3,387,671

0.431

0.224

1.026

2.362

2007

1,818,917

1,822,164

5,206,588

0.312

 

1.538

 

2008

1,909,307

1,918,236

7,115,895

0.257

 

1.857

 

2009

1,996,194

2,010,811

9,112,089

0.217

 

2.119

 

2010

2,095,862

2,100,015

11,207,951

0.169

 

2.268

 

2011

2,197,149

2,185,971

13,405,100

0.157

 

2.453

 

2012

2,285,131

2,268,798

15,690,230

0.14

 

2.562

 

2013

2,351,070

2,348,609

18,041,301

0.126

 

2.652

 

2014

2,418,358

2,425,515

20,459,659

0.115

 

2.766

 

2015

2,490,513

2,499,621

22,950,172

0.107

 

2.857

 

2016

2,583,709

2,571,028

25,533,881

0.038

 

2.931

 

2017

2,632,780

2,639,836

28,166,660

0.271

 

3.315

 

2018

2,706,138

2,712,540

2,706,138

0.19

 

3.214

 

2019

2,770,027

2,790,214

5,476,166

0.617

 

2.014

 

2020

 

2,831,590

8,307,755

    

2021

 

2,890,911

11,198,666

0.431

0.266

1.825

2.143

2022

 

2,948,073

14,146,739

0.234

 

2.217

 

2023

 

3,003,153

17,149,892

0.293

 

2.342

 

2024

 

3,056,228

20,206,120

0.264

 

2.522

 

2025

 

3,107,371

23,313,490

0.243

 

2.608

 

2026

 

3,156,651

26,470,142

0.327

 

2.777

 

2027

 

3,204,138

29,674,280

0.190

 

2.862

 

MAPE %

 

2.88%

     
  1. Abbreviations: EGM even grey model, DGM discrete grey model, NDGM nonhomogeneous discrete grey model, RGR relative growth rate, Dt doubling time
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