Cardiovascular disease (CVD): assessment, prediction and policy implications

BMC Public Health

Table 1 Forecasting cardiovascular deaths in Pakistan

Years	Original Data	NDGM	Cumulative	RGR	RGR Mean	D_t	Mean D_t
2005	295,320	295,320	295,320
2006	298,835	297,535	594,156	0.699	0.223	1.051	2.397
2007	302,305	302,502	896,461	0.411		1.582
2008	307,782	307,896	1,204,244	0.295		1.913
2009	313,037	313,753	1,517,282	0.231		2.158
2010	319,323	320,113	1,836,606	0.191		2.349
2011	326,241	327,019	2,162,848	0.164		2.504
2012	334,172	334,517	2,497,021	0.144		2.9
2013	342,768	342,660	2,839,790	0.129		2.644
2014	352,846	351,502	3,192,636	0.117		2.838
2015	362,180	361,102	3,554,816	0.107		2.924
2016	372,093	371,527	3,926,909	0.100		3.12
2017	381,421	382,847	4,308,331	0.093		3.072
2018	395,139	399,214	395,139	0.201		1.914
2019	408,486	412,578	803,625	0.230		0.351
2020		422,979	1,226,605
2021		438,716	1,665,321	0.7521	0.265	1.887	2.125
2022		455,804	2,121,126	0.212		2.112
2023		474,360	2,595,486	0.252		2.423
2024		494,508	3,089,995	02174		2.521
2025		516,386	3,606,381	0.300		2.656
2026		540,143	4,146,525	0.268		2.721
2027		565,939	4,712,464	0.228		2.905
MAPE %		1.56

Abbreviations: EGM even grey model, DGM discrete grey model, NDGM nonhomogeneous discrete grey model, RGR relative growth rate, Dt doubling time

ISSN: 1471-2458