Table 2 Coefficient estimates from the best performing model (endemic seasonality (S2) + epidemic seasonality (S1) + trend + uncorrelated random effects)

 Age [05–14]

0.041

0.024

0.072

0.012

 Age [15–24]

0.064

0.040

0.101

0.015

 Age [25–44]

0.044

0.024

0.080

0.014

 Age [45–64]

0.114

0.063

0.206

0.034

 Age [65+

1.796

1.085

2.971

0.461

 Population Size

1.431

1.036

1.978

0.165

 Sine (2* π *t/52)

0.929

0.871

0.992

0.032

 Cosine (2* π *t/52)

0.744

0.697

0.794

0.019

 Random Intercept

7.548

1.434

39.731

6.396

 Age [05–14]

0.180

0.092

0.350

0.061

 Age [15–24]

0.115

0.058

0.227

0.040

 Age [25–44]

0.136

0.071

0.263

0.046

 Age [45–64]

0.154

0.080

0.297

0.052

 Age [65+

0.355

0.181

0.695

0.122

 Primary Schools (%)

0.869

0.657

1.149

0.142

 Nurseries (%)

1.113

0.866

1.431

0.128

 Hospitals (%)

0.997

0.898

1.107

0.053

 Sine (2* π *t/52)

1.112

0.991

1.248

0.071

 Cosine (2* π *t/52)

1.142

1.000

1.303

0.060

 Sine (4* π *t/52)

0.850

0.781

0.925

0.038

 Cosine (4* π *t/52)

0.830

0.771

0.894

0.019

 Random Intercept

89.232

48.502

164.162

27.754

Spatial weights (d)

3.617

3.313

3.948

0.162

Overdispersion

1.337

1.305

1.370

0.012