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Table 3 Ratios of Predicted to Observed Hypertension Incidence in each Decile of the Risk Predicted by the Framingham Risk Score

From: Validation of the Framingham hypertension risk score in a middle eastern population: Tehran lipid and glucose study (TLGS)

Deciles   1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Original model Predicted, na 0.8 2.2 4.1 6.7 10.3 15.4 23.1 35.4 59.3 139.8
Observed, nb 0 5.4 4.2 9.3 14.7 24.5 47.8 48.7 75.9 173.1
Ratio P: O 0.41 0.97 0.72 0.72 0.63 0.48 0.73 0.78 .081
Recalibrated for intercept Predicted, n 0.69 2.1 4.0 6.9 11.1 17.2 26.8 42.6 74.3 182.3
Observed, n 0 4.2 4.2 9.3 14.7 24.5 47.8 48.7 75.9 173.1
Ratio P: O 0.38 0.96 0.75 0.76 0.70 056 0.87 0.98 1.05
Recalibrated for intercept & slop Predicted, n 1.3 3.5 6.2 9.9 14.8 21.6 31.5 46.7 75.0 163.0
Observed, n 0 5.4 4.2 9.3 14.7 24.5 47.8 48.7 75.9 173.1
Ratio P: O 0.65 1.5 1.07 1.01 0.88 0.66 0.96 0.99 0.94
Revised for the coefficient of sex Predicted, n 1.1 3.1 5.8 9.2 14.0 21.0 31.3 47.2 76.3 165.4
Observed, n 0 4.2 4.1 9.0 11.9 30.9 39.2 52.5 79.2 172.7
Ratio P: O 0.73 1.4 1.02 1.2 0.68 0.80 0.90 0.96 0.96
  1. n number; P predicted numbers; O observed numbers
  2. aThe average number of predicted hypertension cases in each decile
  3. bThe average number of observed hypertension cases in each decile