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Table 2 Partial parameter settings and MSLE error results

From: Exploring the influence of human mobility factors and spread prediction on early COVID-19 in the USA

 

β0

τβ

γ

δ

Active MSLE

Recovered MSLE

Deaths MSLE

USA

0.2965

(0.2952, 02978)

18.2532

(18.1289, 18.3776)

0.0085

(0.0083, 0.0088)

0.0014

(0.0012, 0.0016)

0.0145

0.0716

0.5293

CA

0.1408

(0.1378, 0.1438)

52.4868

(51.1321, 53.8414)

0.0135

(0.0128, 0.0143)

0.0021

(0.0015, 0.0027)

0.4805

1.0055

0.8436

FL

0.1457

(0.1369, 0.1404)

45.5202

(44.0674, 46.973)

0.0000

(0.0000, 0.0005)

0.0006

(0.0000, 0.0011)

1.3653

12.1147

3.9553

NY

0.1450

(0.1377, 0.1523)

18.0593

(17.6187, 18.4999)

0.0013

(0.0012, 0.0013)

0.0008

(0.0007, 0.0008)

0.0002

0.0024

0.0291

TX

0.2252

(0.2236, 0.2269)

38.2234

(37.2958, 39,151)

0.0022

(0.0017, 0.0028)

0.0469

(0.0457, 0.0481)

0.3292

0.5997

0.7387

NJ

0.3336

(0.3278, 0.3394)

16.5512

(16.0440, 17.058)

0.0010

(0.0007, 0.0012)

0.0022

(0.0019, 0.0024)

0.1107

0.8469

0.5487

IL

0.2649

(0.2622, 0.2660)

22.8471

(22.5580, 23.1362)

0.0009

(0.0008, 0.0010)

0.0646

1.1597

GA

0.1576

(0.1549, 0.1602)

41.2431

(40.1865, 42.2998)

0.0012

(0.0006, 0.0019)

0.0020

(0.0014, 0.0027)

0.8875

2.9482

1.9281

AZ

0.2092

(0.2082, 0.2103)

18.1688

(18.0336, 18.3040)

0.0008

(0.0006, 0.0010)

0.0001

(0.0000, 0.0002)

0.1260

1.1917

0.8466

MA

0.2332

(0.2325, 0.2340)

18.2453

(18.1355, 18.3550)

0.0013

(0.0013, 0.0014)

0.0118

0.4421

PA

0.2976

(0.2964, 0.2987)

15.4270

(15.3304, 15.5235)

0.0003

(0.0002, 0.0004)

0.0013

(0.0012, 0.0015)

0.0053

1.0329

0.3800