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Table 2 Parameter estimates for the COVID-19 epidemics in China, South Korea, Japan, Italy, Spain, and Iran

From: Effects of medical resource capacities and intensities of public mitigation measures on outcomes of COVID-19 outbreaks

Parameter Estimated values      Source
China South Korea Japan Italy Spain Iran
c(t) c0 12.2252 8.492 5.8547 5.0 4.995 Estimated
cb 3.2332 3.6005 0.0105 0.4649 1.4678 Estimated
r1 0.05 0.0237 0.0392 0.0532 0.101 Estimated
c 2.0 Estimated
β 0.1911 0.1911 0.1911 0.1911 0.1911 0.1701(Est) (1, 2)
q(t) q0 0.2128 0.1003 0.1007 0.1112 0.1995 Estimated
qm 0.9 0.899 0.7106 0.6446 0.7963 Estimated
r2 0.05 0.1206 0.1 0.046 0.0697 Estimated
q 0.8 Estimated
ϑ 1.0 × 10−9 0.0027 0.01 1.4561 × 10−9 4.682 × 10−6 4.98 × 10−9 Estimated
βA 0.001 0.0484 0.1028 0.15 0.1227 0.171 Estimated
βH 0.001 0.0043 1.0051 × 10−4 0.15 0.053 0.013 Estimated
ρ 0.45 0.95 0.4 0.4575 0.5556 0.6(7) Estimated
σ 1/5 1/5 1/5 1/5 1/5 1/5 (8)
λ 1/14 1/14 1/14 1/14 1/14 1/14 (1)
δI(t) δI0 0.15 0.02* 0.099 0.0512 0.1447 Estimated
δIf 0.8071 0.4988 0.2001 0.1725 0.3337 Estimated
r3 0.1 0.2999 0.3495 0.3401 0.2998 Estimated
δI 0.4308 Estimated
δT(t) δT0 0.05* 0.0979 0.1093 0.1431 Estimated
δTf 0.4509 0.3329 0.4245 0.334 Estimated
r4 0.103 0.3995 0.3317 0.1 Estimated
δT 0.5 0.3835 Estimated
ω 0.1001 0.0089 0.2912 0.7999 0.7845 0.4931 Estimated
θ 0.4892 0.336 0.7732 0.3333 0.1677 0.3014 Estimated
γA 0.18 0.1807 0.1 0.1468 0.1442 0.2014 Estimated
γ1 0.04 0.1359 0.0989 0.08 0.085 0.0498 Estimated
γ2 0.08 0.0926 0.0667 0.0857 0.0903 0.0667 Estimated
α 0.01 0.005 1.0008 × 10−4 3.8099 × 10−4 0.0231 0.0212 Estimated
α1 0.01 0.002 1.0066 × 10−4 0.0284 0.0201 0.012 Estimated
α2 7.6724 × 10−4 0.0024 0.0053 0.01 0.0134 0.01 Estimated
Hc(t) H0 1500 796.679 1997.7 1200 999.1962 Estimated
  Hf 4.1968 × 104 3. 0065 × 103 3.6 × 104 3.0 ×104 1.6235 ×104 Estimated
  rh 0.15 0.9728 0.1650 0.077 0.05 Estimated
Initial values Estimated values      Source
China South Korea Japan Italy Spain Iran
S(0) 1.0 × 108 2.0651 × 106 2.9985 × 106 2.0 × 106 2.0 × 106 3.9945 × 106 Estimated
E(0) 1000 999.919 10.0 2435.6 2500 149.2259 Estimated
I(0) 400 99.6953 10.0 275.9334 400 209.0317 Estimated
A(0) 414.5036 199.6778 79.9999 250.3936 280 140.2632 Estimated
T(0) 2000 105.078 5.0 0.0001 0 0 (Assumed) Estimated
Sq(0) 2000 7123 (Data) 307.594 4.2 × 10−5 7.4 0 (Assumed) Estimated
H1(0) 0 0 0 22 10 0 Data
H2(0) 28 21 0 80 10 0 Data
R(0) 15 9 1 1 0 0 Data
  1. Note that, ‘Est’ means that the parameter values are estimated by fitting the models to the data when the source column indicates that they are not. ‘*’ means the estimated values for δI and δT before 2020/3/25, otherwise δI and δT are increasing functions with respect to time t