Fig. 5
Sensitivity analyses reveal the relation between daily numbers of potential empty beds and cumulative numbers of deaths. The effects of the production capacity and reserve capacities of medical resources, and detection rates on runs on medical resources and cumulative numbers of deaths for China (a & b), Italy (c & d), Spain (e & f) and Iran (g & h). The daily potential numbers of empty beds were calculated from the formula max {Hc(t) − H2(t) − θH1(t), 0}. The black curves in each subplot are generated by the baseline parameter values listed in Table 2. The values (Table 3) of daily potential numbers of empty beds and cumulative numbers of deaths on 26 April 2020 have been calculated to reveal when and how long the runs on medical resources could last, depending on the production capacities of medical resources and detection rates for each country, when each parameter value is reduced by 1/3