Table 4 Risk of CVD outcomes and mortality associated with BMI trajectory groups

Overall CVD

overweight-S

1.00

1.00

1.00

obese 1-S

1.25 (1.22–1.28)

1.24 (1.21–1.28)

1.15 (1.12–1.19)

obese 2-S

1.32 (1.28–1.36)

1.46 (1.41–1.51)

1.27 (1.23–1.31)

obese 3-S

1.42 (1.35–1.50)

1.75 (1.66–1.85)

1.40 (1.33–1.48

Coronary heart disease

overweight-S

1.00

1.00

1.00

obese 1-S

1.23 (1.19–1.28)

1.23 (1.18–1.27)

1.14 (1.10–1.18)

obese 2-S

1.17 (1.12–1.22)

1.30 (1.24–1.35)

1.13 (1.09–1.18)

obese 3-S

1.07 (0.99–1.16)

1.31 (1.22–1.42)

1.06 (0.99–1.16)

Stroke/ TIA

overweight-S

1.00

1.00

1.00

obese 1-S

1.18 (1.12–1.24)

1.16 (1.10–1.22)

1.09 (1.03–1.15)

obese 2-S

1.16 (1.09–1.24)

1.27 (1.19–1.36)

1.13 (1.06–1.20)

obese 3-S

1.04 (0.93–1.18)

1.26 (1.12–1.42)

1.04 (0.92–1.18)

Peripheral vascular disease

overweight-S

1.00

1.00

1.00

obese 1-S

1.13 (1.05–1.22)

1.13 (1.04–1.22)

0.99 (0.92–1.07)

obese 2-S

1.02 (0.92–1.12)

1.16 (1.06–1.29)

0.92 (0.83–1.01)

obese 3-S

0.79 (0.65–0.96)

1.03 (0.85–1.25)

0.73 (0.60–0.89)

Heart failure

overweight-S

1.00

1.00

1.00

obese 1-S

1.73 (1.63–1.83)

1.73 (1.63–1.83)

1.51 (1.42–1.60)

obese 2-S

2.31 (2.16–2.46)

2.70 (2.53–2.88)

2.09 (1.96–2.23)

obese 3-S

3.58 (3.28–3.91)

4.94 (4.53–5.40)

3.26 (2.98–3.57)

All-cause mortality

overweight-S

1.00

1.00

1.00

obese 1-S

1.16 (1.13–1.20)

1.16 (1.12–1.19)

1.12 (1.09–1.16)

obese 2-S

1.41 (1.36–1.46)

1.63 (1.58–1.69)

1.55 (1.50–1.61)

obese 3-S

2.17 (2.06–2.29)

2.96 (2.81–3.12)

2.72 (2.58–2.87)

CVD-related deaths

overweight-S

1.00

1.00

1.00

obese 1-S

1.53 (1.40–1.68)

1.54 (1.40–1.68)

1.44 (1.31–1.58)

obese 2-S

1.94 (1.75–2.15)

2.33 (2.10–2.59)

2.06 (1.86–2.29)

obese 3-S

2.73 (2.35–3.17)

3.98 (3.42–4.63)

3.31 (2.84–3.86)