Table 3 Cardiovascular disease, heart failure and death in the BMI trajectory groups
|  | Trajectory 1 (overweight-S) (n = 95,944) | Trajectory 2 (obese class 1-S) (n = 104,616) | Trajectory 3 (obese class 2-S) (n = 50,866) | Trajectory 4 (obese class 3-S) (n = 12,804) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cardiovascular disease and heart failure outcomes | ||||
 Age (years) at first CVD diagnosis (mean (SD)) | 65.9 (12.0) | 66.2 (11.8) | 65.2 (11.8) | 64.1 (10.9) |
 Follow-up (1000 person years) | 1100 | 1100 | 517.7 | 123.1 |
Number of events (%) | ||||
 Any CVD | 10,054 (10.5) | 12,666 (12.1) | 6137 (12.1) | 1543 (12.1) |
 CHD | 6074 (6.3) | 7569 (7.2) | 3329 (6.5) | 714 (5.6) |
 Stroke/TIA | 2675 (2.8) | 3152 (3.0) | 1436 (2.8) | 300 (2.3) |
 PVD | 1246 (1.3) | 1425 (1.4) | 595 (1.2) | 108 (0.8) |
 Heart failure | 1836 (1.9) | 3175 (3.0) | 1947 (3.8) | 702 (5.5) |
Incidence rate (95% CI) of CVD and heart failure, per (1000 person-years) | ||||
 Any CVD | 9.30 (9.1–9.5) | 11.44 (11.2–11.6) | 11.86 (11.6–12.2) | 12.54 (11.9–13.2) |
 Coronary heart disease | 5.62 (5.5–5.8) | 6.83 (6.7–7.0) | 6.43 (6.2–6.7) | 5.80 (5.4–6.2) |
 Stroke/TIA | 2.48 (2.4–2.6) | 2.85 (2.7–2.90) | 2.77 (2.6–2.9) | 2.44 (2.2–2.7) |
 Peripheral vascular disease | 1.15 (1.1–1.2) | 1.29 (1.2–1.4) | 1.15 (1.1–1.2) | 0.88 (0.7–1.1) |
 Heart failure | 1.70 (1.6–1.8) | 2.87 (2.8–3.0) | 3.76 (3.6–3.9) | 5.70 (5.3–6.1) |
Mortality outcomes | ||||
 Deaths during follow-up n(%) (total n = 24,022) | 7938 (8.3) | 9175 (8.8) | 5092 (10.0) | 1817 (14.2) |
 Age (years) at death (mean (SD)) | 74.5 (12.1) | 73.6 (12.0) | 70.9 (12.3) | 67.3 (11.8) |
 CVD related death n(%) (total n = 2827) | 761 (0.8) | 1165 (1.1) | 679 (1.3) | 222 (1.7) |
Mortality rate (95% CI), number of events per 1000 person-years | ||||
 All-cause mortality rate | 7.35 (7.2–7.5) | 8.28 (8.1–8.5) | 9.84 (9.6–10.1) | 14.76 (14.1–15.5) |
 CVD-related mortality rate | 0.70 (0.7–0.8) | 1.05 (1.0–1.1) | 1.31 (1.2–1.4) | 1.80 (1.6–2.1) |