Fig. 1

Reported and median-scenario estimated cumulative deaths of COVID-19 in Iran . (1) Ahmadi M2: Model 2, Von Bertalanffy (Curve lies behind MOHME reported) [44]. (2) Ghaffarzadegan S1P1: Seasonality conditions 1 (no effect or status quo) and Policy effect 2 (aggressive efforts to decrease contact rate by half of what it would be otherwise) [41]. (3) Haghdoost S2: Medium scenario, medium (32%) isolation (Curve lies behind MOHME reported) [27]. (4) Mashayekhi S2: Medium scenario, not serious distancing; People reduce their social [physical] contacts only to 20% of regular level, voluntarily, after number of cases and deaths have increased, and other settings are like scenario one [28]. (5) Deaths CF 5: Reported deaths with a Correction Factor of 5, after Dr. Rick Brennan, Director of Emergency Operations, World Health Organization [57]. (6) Deaths CF 10: Reported deaths with a Correction Factor of 10, after Russell [58]. (7) MOHME reported: Official reported deaths via [4, 5]