Skip to main content

Table 1 Forecast attack rates

From: Forecasting the 2017/2018 seasonal influenza epidemic in England using multiple dynamic transmission models: a case study

ISO

SPC model

SS model

ICU model

Synthesis model

Week

ILI+

ILI+

ICU

ILI+

Hosp.

ICU

1

1650

365

4.54

19400

8730

594

 

(456, 2660)

(315, 424)

(2.36,10.8)

(163, 40700)

(738, 19200)

(50.1, 1320)

2

188

485

4.10

18500

8020

528

 

(175, 206)

(415, 549)

(2.73, 8.13)

(1580, 33700)

(710, 15200)

(46.6, 1010)

3

174

570

4.74

8460

3320

220

 

(165, 183)

(473, 648)

(3.57, 7.80)

(134, 20600)

(74.1, 8270)

(4.88, 555)

4

185

370

4.53

197

71.7

4.63

 

(176, 194)

(322, 417)

(3.76, 6.04)

(61.1, 441)

(55.8, 128)

(3.54, 8.49)

5

175

348

4.80

190

67.4

4.35

 

(167, 184)

(306, 378)

(4.11, 6.15)

(68.0, 331)

(57.2, 82.1)

(3.64, 5.42)

6

180

300

5.29

195

70.6

4.56

 

(171, 189)

(262, 345)

(4.63, 6.40)

(71.4, 329)

(61.0, 83.1)

(3.89, 5.47)

8

173

280

5.01

225

85.3

5.29

 

(164, 182)

(236, 305)

(4.68, 5.44)

(110, 354)

(70.9, 104)

(4.38, 6.53)

12

194

265

6.16

250

96.3

6.13

 

(185, 202)

(249, 302)

(5.50, 6.97)

(108, 400)

(81.0, 115)

(5.10, 7.42)

  1. Posterior median (with 95% credible intervals underneath) for the ILI+ attack rate (per 100,000 people), Hospitalization attack rate (per 100,000 people), and ICU attack rate (per 100,000 people). These attack rates are forecasts for the cumulative total number of GP consultations/Hospitalisation/ICU admissions attributable to influenza over the course of the whole influenza season. The ‘ISO Week’ gives the week of 2018 in which the forecast is made
Back to article page

BMC Public Health

ISSN: 1471-2458

Contact us