Skip to main content

Table 1 Forecast attack rates

From: Forecasting the 2017/2018 seasonal influenza epidemic in England using multiple dynamic transmission models: a case study

ISOSPC modelSS modelICU modelSynthesis model
WeekILI+ILI+ICUILI+Hosp.ICU
116503654.54194008730594
 (456, 2660)(315, 424)(2.36,10.8)(163, 40700)(738, 19200)(50.1, 1320)
21884854.10185008020528
 (175, 206)(415, 549)(2.73, 8.13)(1580, 33700)(710, 15200)(46.6, 1010)
31745704.7484603320220
 (165, 183)(473, 648)(3.57, 7.80)(134, 20600)(74.1, 8270)(4.88, 555)
41853704.5319771.74.63
 (176, 194)(322, 417)(3.76, 6.04)(61.1, 441)(55.8, 128)(3.54, 8.49)
51753484.8019067.44.35
 (167, 184)(306, 378)(4.11, 6.15)(68.0, 331)(57.2, 82.1)(3.64, 5.42)
61803005.2919570.64.56
 (171, 189)(262, 345)(4.63, 6.40)(71.4, 329)(61.0, 83.1)(3.89, 5.47)
81732805.0122585.35.29
 (164, 182)(236, 305)(4.68, 5.44)(110, 354)(70.9, 104)(4.38, 6.53)
121942656.1625096.36.13
 (185, 202)(249, 302)(5.50, 6.97)(108, 400)(81.0, 115)(5.10, 7.42)
  1. Posterior median (with 95% credible intervals underneath) for the ILI+ attack rate (per 100,000 people), Hospitalization attack rate (per 100,000 people), and ICU attack rate (per 100,000 people). These attack rates are forecasts for the cumulative total number of GP consultations/Hospitalisation/ICU admissions attributable to influenza over the course of the whole influenza season. The ‘ISO Week’ gives the week of 2018 in which the forecast is made