Fig. 2

Evolution of forecasts of peak activity over time. Estimates for the peak timing (Panels a–c) and magnitude (Panels d–f) in GP consultations and ICU admissions over time. In Panels a–c the shaded grey region gives the time interval over which the observed peaks in ILI (and ILI+, Panels a and b) and ICU admission (Panel c) occur. In places, the credible intervals vanish, where the peak week is predicted with certainty to be in a specific week. Again, region-specific estimates are presented in panels b and e, while only the ICU and Synthesis models forecast the ICU admission rates and only these models feature in Panels c and f