Table 3 Multilevel analysis of spatiotemporal changes in mortality of ischemic heart disease in China from 2010 to 2015

Fixed effect

Year

1.016 (1.012,1.020)*

1.020 (1.016,1.024)*

1.019 (1.015,1.023)*

1.019 (1.015,1.023)*

1.019 (1.015,1.023)*

1.019 (1.015,1.023)*

Gender (ref:male)

1

1

1

1

1

1

 Female

0.622 (0.612,0.632)*

0.618 (0.609,0.628)*

0.618 (0.608,0.627)*

0.618 (0.608,0.627)*

0.619 (0.609,0.629)*

0.619 (0.610,0.629)*

Age (5 years old as an age group)

1.839 (1.835,1.842)*

1.848 (1.844,1.851)*

1.850 (1.846,1.853)*

1.850 (1.846,1.853)*

1.852 (1.848,1.855)*

1.852 (1.848,1.855)*

Area (ref: north)

1

1

1

1

1

 East

0.435 (0.307,0.616)*

0.442 (0.317,0.615)*

0.484 (0.346,0.677)*

0.598 (0.446,0.800)*

0.641 (0.487,0.843)*

 Central

0.720 (0.475,1.094)

0.705 (0.475,1.048)

0.710 (0.484,1.043)

0.837 (0.604,1.159)

0.845 (0.629,1.137)

 North

0.512 (0.329,0.795)*

0.531 (0.350,0.805)*

0.572 (0.376,0.870)*

0.739 (0.509,1.073)

0.743 (0.527,1.047)

 Weatsouth

0.360 (0.246,0.525)*

0.334 (0.233,0.478)*

0.361 (0.250,0.520)*

0.472 (0.340,0.656)

0.509 (0.375,0.691)*

 Westnorth

0.865 (0.589,1.270)

0.824 (0.574,1.185)

0.757 (0.526,1.090)

0.770 (0.564,1.052)

0.795 (0.596,1.060)

 Eastnorth

1.051 (0.688,1.605)

1.051 (0.705,1.568)

0.994 (0.668,1.480)

1.023 (0.754,1.389)

0.948 (0.717,1.255)

Urbanization rate (ref:low)

1

1

1

1

 Middle

0.949 (0.816,1.104)

0.987 (0.842,1.157)

1.043 (0.897,1.213)

1.002 (0.863,1.163)

 High

0.728 (0.631,0.840)*

0.771 (0.646,0.920)*

0.820 (0.684,0.984)

0.819 (0.672,0.998)*

Current smoking rate (ref: low)

1

1

1

 Middle

0.971 (0.826,1.143)

0.952 (0.820,1.105)

0.952 (0.824,1.101)

 High

1.134 (0.947,1.358)

1.133 (0.954,1.346)

1.082 (0.914,1.281)

Excessive red meat intake (ref: low)

1

1

1

 Middle

0.890 (0.757,1.048)

0.893 (0.765,1.043)

0.890 (0.766,1.032)

 High

0.891 (0.733,1.084)

0.918 (0.763,1.103)

0.900 (0.756,1.072)

Insufficient Vegetable and fruit intake (ref: low)

1

1

1

 Middle

0.943 (0.811,1.096)

0.941 (0.811,1.092)

0.927 (0.802,1.071)

 High

0.901 (0.767,1.058)

0.898 (0.769,1.048)

0.884 (0.762,1.026)

Average meditation time (ref: low)

1

1

1

 Middle

0.895 (0.767,1.045)

0.883 (0.763,1.023)

0.851 (0.739,0.980)

 High

0.933 (0.789,1.105)

0.869 (0.737,1.025)

0.868 (0.741,1.018)

Average BMI (ref:low)

1

1

 Middle

1.135 (0.939,1.373)

1.050 (0.870,1.268)

 High

1.495 (1.172,1.906)*

1.436 (1.135,1.817)*

Average SBP (ref:low)

1

1

 Middle

1.150 (0.983,1.346)

1.149 (0.986,1.339)

 High

1.294 (1.007,1.663)*

1.310 (1.019,1.684)*

Average FBG (ref:low)

1

1

 Middle

1.069 (0.907,1.261)

1.061 (0.905,1.243)

 High

1.093 (0.909,1.314)

1.079 (0.903,1.290)

Average HDL (ref:low)

1

1

 Middle

0.830 (0.706,0.977)

0.816 (0.692,0.962)*

 High

0.746 (0.619,0.899)

0.741 (0.616,0.891)*

Average total cholesterol (ref:low)

1

1

 Middle

0.932 (0.772,1.125)

0.899 (0.747,1.080)

 High

1.062 (0.838,1.346)

1.046 (0.828,1.321)

Triglyceride level (ref:low)

1

1

 Middle

1.012 (0.857,1.196)

1.080 (0.913,1.278)

 High

1.081 (0.897,1.302)

1.079 (0.899,1.295)

No health insurance ratio (ref:low)

1

 Middle

1.137 (0.964,1.340)

 High

1.218 (1.007,1.473)*

Household income level (ref:low)

1

 Middle

1.146 (0.989,1.327)

 High

0.886 (0.741,1.059)

Random effect

Variance (SE) Provincial level

0.189 (0.057)

0.058 (0.023)

0.054 (0.020)

0.049 (0.019)

0.022 (0.011)

0.015 (0.009)

MRR

1.514

1.258

1.248

1.235

1.152

1.124

PCV

–

70.1%

72.2%

74.9%

89.8%

94.7%

Variance (SE) Monitoring point level

0.157 (0.020)

0.141 (0.018)

0.114 (0.015)

0.112 (0.015)

0.095 (0.012)

0.089 (0.011)

MRR

1.459

1.430

1.380

1.376

1.342

1.329

PCV

–

10.4%

29.4%

30.1%

35.6%

38.1%

VPC

–

0.145

0.183

0.161

0.051

0.028