|
Model
|
Variables
| |
Lag
|
Estimate
|
SE
|
t
|
P-value
|
|---|
|
[A]
|
Monthly patients
|
Constant
| |
1.96
|
0.40
|
4.81
|
< 0.001
|
| | |
MA
|
Lag 1
|
0.26
|
0.09
|
2.75
|
0.007
|
| | | |
Lag 2
|
0.26
|
0.09
|
2.77
|
0.006
|
|
[B]
| |
MA
|
Lag 1
|
−0.89
|
0.04
|
−18.57
|
< 0.001
|
| | |
MA, seasonal
|
Lag 1
|
−0.34
|
0.17
|
−1.95
|
0.05
|
|
[C]
| |
MA
|
Lag 1
|
−0.87
|
0.05
|
− 14.82
|
< 0.001
|
| | |
Seasonal difference
| |
1
| | | |
| | |
MA, seasonal
|
Lag 1
|
−0.37
|
0.19
|
−1.95
|
0.054
|
| |
Maximum temperature
| | |
0.023
|
0.14
|
0.16
|
0.86
|
| |
Minimum temperature
| | |
0.26
|
0.24
|
1.09
|
0.27
|
| |
Mean temperature
| | |
−0.24
|
0.18
|
−1.33
|
0.18
|
| |
Rain fall
| | |
0.02
|
0.04
|
0.57
|
0.56
|
| |
Maximum Humidity
| | |
−0.01
|
0.02
|
− 0.76
|
0.44
|
| |
Minimum Humidity
| | |
−0.19
|
0.13
|
−1.46
|
0.14
|
| |
Mean Humidity
| | |
0.06
|
0.06
|
0.92
|
0.35
|
| |
Sunshine
| | |
0.02
|
0.01
|
−1.33
|
0.18
|
- [A]: MA (2), [B]: univariate SARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1), [C]: multivariate SARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1), SARIMA: seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average
- A) AIC: 4.84, AICc: 4.84, BIC: 4.94, log likelihood = − 228.45
- B) AIC: 4.34, AICc: 4.34, BIC: 4.42, log likelihood = − 201.34
- C) AIC: 4.43, AICc: 4.46, BIC: 4.71, log likelihood = − 197.43
