The effect of climate variables on the incidence of Crimean Congo Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF) in Zahedan, Iran

BMC Public Health

Table 2 Comparison of candidate SARIMA models for number of CCHF cases in Zahedan district, Iran

Model	Variables		Lag	Estimate	SE	t	P-value
[A]	Monthly patients	Constant		1.96	0.40	4.81	< 0.001
		MA	Lag 1	0.26	0.09	2.75	0.007
			Lag 2	0.26	0.09	2.77	0.006
[B]		MA	Lag 1	−0.89	0.04	−18.57	< 0.001
		MA, seasonal	Lag 1	−0.34	0.17	−1.95	0.05
[C]		MA	Lag 1	−0.87	0.05	− 14.82	< 0.001
		Seasonal difference		1
		MA, seasonal	Lag 1	−0.37	0.19	−1.95	0.054
	Maximum temperature			0.023	0.14	0.16	0.86
	Minimum temperature			0.26	0.24	1.09	0.27
	Mean temperature			−0.24	0.18	−1.33	0.18
	Rain fall			0.02	0.04	0.57	0.56
	Maximum Humidity			−0.01	0.02	− 0.76	0.44
	Minimum Humidity			−0.19	0.13	−1.46	0.14
	Mean Humidity			0.06	0.06	0.92	0.35
	Sunshine			0.02	0.01	−1.33	0.18

[A]: MA (2), [B]: univariate SARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1), [C]: multivariate SARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1), SARIMA: seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average
A) AIC: 4.84, AICc: 4.84, BIC: 4.94, log likelihood = − 228.45
B) AIC: 4.34, AICc: 4.34, BIC: 4.42, log likelihood = − 201.34
C) AIC: 4.43, AICc: 4.46, BIC: 4.71, log likelihood = − 197.43

ISSN: 1471-2458