Epidemiological and time series analysis on the incidence and death of AIDS and HIV in China

BMC Public Health

Table 2 Goodness-of-fit test and selection of optimal ARIMA models

Time series	Optimal Model	Goodness-of-fit				Ljung-Box test
Time series	Optimal Model	MASE	RMSE	AIC	BIC	χ²	P value
AIDS incidence	(0,1,3) × (2,0,0)₁₂	0.55	0.03	− 553.19	− 535.42	0.00	0.99
HIV incidence	(3,1,0) × (1,0,1)₁₂	0.69	0.05	− 436.07	− 418.29	0.09	0.77
AIDS and HIV incidence	(0,1,2) × (2,0,0)₁₂	0.56	0.07	− 344.62	− 329.81	0.16	0.69
AIDS death	(0,1,3) × (1,0,0)₁₂	0.62	0.01	− 926.73	− 911.92	0.05	0.83
HIV death	(0,1,3) × (1,0,0)₁₂	0.61	0.01	− 901.39	− 886.58	0.02	0.89
AIDS and HIV death	(0,1,3) × (1,0,0)₁₂	0.60	0.02	− 724.45	− 709.64	0.03	0.87

Note: MASE Mean absolute scaled error, RMSE Root mean square error, AIC Akaike’s information criterion, BIC Bayesian information criterion

ISSN: 1471-2458