Fig. 5
From: Epidemiological and time series analysis on the incidence and death of AIDS and HIV in China
Monthly incidence (a) and death (b) (per 100,000) of AIDS/HIV and the two combined from 2004 to 2017 as reported (in gray) and fitted by the optimal ARIMA model (in blue). ARIMA models were fitted using data from 2004 to 2015, and parameters for the chosen ARIMA model were annotated in the title of individual time-series figures. ARIMA-based forecast of incidence or death in 2016 and 2017 displays a 95% prediction interval (gray ribbon). Note: the data are raw and fitted monthly incidence or death, and not annualized. For comparison to annual incidence or death, a multiplying factor of 12 should be used for monthly data. For example, monthly incidence of AIDS in January 2004 is 0.0272 per 100,000, and annual incidence of AIDS in 2004 is 0.2349 per 100,000