Table 6 Bibliography and study characteristics
# | Study | Country | Disease | Data source | Methodology | Projected year | DOI/PMID | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Cho et al. (2018): “IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global estimates of diabetes prevalence for 2017 and projections for 2045” | Global | Diabetes | Literature review | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2045 | Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice | |
2 | Hebert et al. (2013): “Alzheimer disease in the United States (2010–2050) estimated using the 2010 census” | USA | Dementia/ Alzheimer’s | Other epidemiological studies | Multistate model | 2050 | Neurology | |
3 | Shaw et al. (2010): “Global estimates of the prevalence of diabetes for 2010 and 2030” | Global | Diabetes | Literature review | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2030 | Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice | |
4 | Guariguata et al. (2014): “Global estimates of diabetes prevalence for 2013 and projections for 2035” | Global | Diabetes | Literature review | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2035 | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.diabres.2013.11.002. Epub 2013 Dec 1. | Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice |
5 | Ferri et al. (2005): “Global prevalence of dementia: a Delphi consensus study” | Global | Dementia/ Alzheimer’s | Literature review | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2040 | The Lancet | |
6 | Rowley et al. (2017): “Diabetes 2030: Insights from Yesterday, Today, and Future Trends” | USA | Diabetes | Literature review | Multistate model | 2030 | Population Health Management | |
7 | Meza et al. (2015): “Burden of type 2 diabetes in Mexico: past, current and future prevalence and incidence rates” | Mexico | Diabetes | Survey | Multistate model and trend extrapolation | 2050 | Preventive Medicine | |
8 | Brookmeyer et al. (2018): “Forecasting the prevalence of preclinical and clinical Alzheimer’s disease in the United States” | USA | Dementia/ Alzheimer’s | Other epidemiological studies | Multistate model | 2060 | Alzheimers and Dementia | |
9 | Etkind et al. (2017): “How many people will need palliative care in 2040? Past trends, future projections and implications for services” | GB | Sundries | Mixed data sources | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2040 | BMC Medicine | |
10 | Bommer et al. (2018) “Global Economic Burden of Diabetes in Adults: Projections From 2015 to 2030” | Global | Diabetes | Literature review | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2030 | Diabetes Care | |
11 | Wong et al. (2017): “Projection of prediabetes and diabetes population size in Singapore using a dynamic Markov model” | Singapore | Diabetes | Registries | Multistate model | 2035 | Journal of Diabetes | |
12 | Morrell et al. (2016): “Diabetes incidence and projections from prevalence surveys in Fiji” | Fiji | Diabetes | Survey | Trend extrapolation | 2020 | Population Health Metrics | |
13 | Kingston et al. (2016): “Projections of multi-morbidity in the older population in England to 2035: estimates from the Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) model” | GB | Various | Survey | Multistate model | 2040 | Age and Ageing | |
14 | Brookmeyer et al. (1998): “Projections of Alzheimer’s disease in the United States and the public health impact of delaying disease onset” | USA | Dementia/ Alzheimer’s | Literature review | Multistate model (Illness-death model) | 2050 | American Journal of Public Health | |
15 | Gonzales-Gonzales et al. (2017): “Projecting diabetes prevalence among Mexicans aged 50 years and older: the Future Elderly Model-Mexico (FEM-Mexico)” | Mexico | Diabetes | Survey | Trend extrapolation | 2050 | BMJ Open | |
16 | Ziegler-Graham et al. (2008): “Estimating the prevalence of limb loss in the United States: 2005 to 2050” | USA | Others | Routine data | Multistate model (Illness-death model) | 2050 | Archives of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation | |
17 | Lin et al. (2018): “Projection of the future diabetes burden in the United States through 2060” | USA | Diabetes | Survey | Multistate model (Illness-death model) | 2060 | Population Health Metrics | |
18 | Matthews et al. (2019): “Racial and ethnic estimates of Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias in the United States (2015–2060) in adults aged ≥65 years” | USA | Dementia/ Alzheimer’s | Routine data | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2060 | Alzheimers & Dementia | |
19 | Awad et al. (2018): “Forecasting the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar to 2050: A novel modeling approach” | Qatar | Diabetes | Survey | Multistate model | 2050 | Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice | |
20 | Meo (2016): “Prevalence and future prediction of type 2 diabetes mellitus in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: A systematic review of published studies” | Saudi Arabia | Diabetes | Literature review | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2030 | PMID: 27339576 | Journal of the Pakistan Medical Association |
21 | Hebert et al. (2003): “Alzheimer disease in the US population: prevalence estimates using the 2000 census” | USA | Dementia/ Alzheimer’s | Other epidemiological studies | Multistate model | 2050 | Archives of Neurology | |
22 | Savica et al. (2018): “Parkinson disease with and without Dementia: A prevalence study and future projections” | USA | Others | Other epidemiological studies | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2060 | Movement Disorders | |
23 | Ackerman et al. (2018): “Projected Burden of Osteoarthritis and Rheumatoid Arthritis in Australia: A Population-Level Analysis” | Australia | Various | Survey | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2030 | Arthritis Care & Research | |
24 | Ahmadi-Abhari et al. (2017); “Temporal trend in dementia incidence since 2002 and projections for prevalence in England and Wales to 2040: modelling study” | GB | Dementia/ Alzheimer’s | Survey | Multistate model | 2040 | British Medical Journal | |
25 | Sugiyama et al. (2017): “Construction of a simulation model and evaluation of the effect of potential interventions on the incidence of diabetes and initiation of dialysis due to diabetic nephropathy in Japan” | Japan | Diabetes | Survey | Trend extrapolation | 2035 | BMC Health Services Research | |
26 | Sarink et al. (2016): “Projected age- and sex-specific prevalence of cardiovascular diseases in Western Australian adults from 2005 to 2045” | Australia | Various | Mixed data sources | Multistate model | 2045 | European Journal of Preventive Cardiology | |
27 | Imperatore et al. (2012): “Projections of type 1 and type 2 diabetes burden in the U.S. population aged < 20 years through 2050: dynamic modeling of incidence, mortality, and population growth” | USA | Diabetes | Other epidemiological studies | Multistate model | 2050 | Diabetes Care | |
28 | Andersson et al. (2015): “Diabetes Prevalence in Sweden at Present and Projections for Year 2050” | Sweden | Diabetes | Mixed data sources | Multistate model (Illness-death model) | 2050 | PLoS One | |
29 | Kainz et al. (2015): “Prediction of prevalence of chronic kidney disease in diabetic patients in countries of the European Union up to 2025” | Various | Various | Other epidemiological studies | Trend extrapolation | 2025 | Nephrology Dialysis Transplantation | |
30 | Manuel et al. (2016): “Alzheimer’s and other dementias in Canada, 2011 to 2031: a microsimulation Population Health Modeling (POHEM) study of projected prevalence, health burden, health services, and caregiving use” | Canada | Dementia/ Alzheimer’s | Routine data | Trend extrapolation | 2031 | Population Health Metrics | |
31 | de Sousa-Uva et al. (2016): “Trends in diabetes incidence from 1992 to 2015 and projections for 2024: A Portuguese General Practitioner’s Network study” | Portugal | Diabetes | Other epidemiological studies | Trend extrapolation | 2024 | Primary Care Diabetes | |
32 | Saidi et al. (2015): “Forecasting Tunisian type 2 diabetes prevalence to 2027: validation of a simple model” | Tunisia | Diabetes | Mixed data sources | Multistate model | 2027 | BMC Public Health | |
33 | Olajide et al. (2015): “Lung cancer trend in England for the period of 2002 to 2011 and projections of future burden until 2020” | GB | Pulmonary cancer | Registries | Trend extrapolation | 2020 | International Journal of Oncology | |
34 | Javanbakht et al. (2015): “Projection of Diabetes Population Size and Associated Economic Burden through 2030 in Iran: Evidence from Micro-Simulation Markov Model and Bayesian Meta-Analysis” | Iran | Diabetes | Survey | Multistate model | 2030 | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0132505. eCollection 2015. | PLoS One |
35 | Turkiewicz et al. (2014): “Current and future impact of osteoarthritis on health care: a population-based study with projections to year 2032” | Sweden | Arthrosis | Routine data | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2032 | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joca.2014.07.015. Epub 2014 Jul 30. | Osteoarthritis and Cartilage |
36 | Bilandzic & Rosella (2017): “The cost of diabetes in Canada over 10 years: applying attributable health care costs to a diabetes incidence prediction model” | Canada | Diabetes | Survey | Trend extrapolation | 2022 | Health Promotion and Chronic Disease Prevention in Canada: Research, Policy and Practice | |
37 | Al Ali et al. (2013): “Forecasting future prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Syria” | Syria | Diabetes | Survey | Multistate model | 2022 | BMC Public Health | |
38 | Park et al. (2013): “Burden of disease due to dementia in the elderly population of Korea: present and future” | Korea | Dementia/ Alzheimer’s | Literature review | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2050 | BMC Public Health | |
39 | Waldeyer et al. (2013): “Projection of the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Germany: a demographic modelling approach to estimate the direct medical excess costs from 2010 to 2040” | Germany | Diabetes | Survey | Multistate model (Illness-death model) | 2040 | Diabetic Medicine | |
40 | Milan & Fetzer (2019): “The future development of dementia diseases in Germany-a comparison of different forecast models” | Germany | Dementia/ Alzheimer’s | Routine data | Multistate model (Illness-death model) | 2060 | Bundesgesund-heitsblatt Gesundheits-forschung Gesundheits-schutz | |
41 | Loef & Walach (2013): “Midlife obesity and dementia: meta-analysis and adjusted forecast of dementia prevalence in the United States and China” | Various | Dementia/ Alzheimer’s | Literature review | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2030 | Obesity | |
42 | Png et al. (2016): “Current and future economic burden of diabetes among working-age adults in Asia: conservative estimates for Singapore from 2010 to 2050” | Singapore | Diabetes | Mixed data sources | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2050 | BMC Public Health | |
43 | Al-Quwaidhi et al. (2014): “Comparison of type 2 diabetes prevalence estimates in Saudi Arabia from a validated Markov model against the International Diabetes Federation and other modelling studies” | Saudi Arabia | Diabetes | Survey | Multistate model | 2030 | Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice | |
44 | Backholer et al. (2013): “Diabetes Prevention and Treatment Strategies - Are we doing enough?” | Australia | Diabetes | Other epidemiological studies | Multistate model | 2025 | Diabetes Care | |
45 | Huang et al. (2009): “Projecting the Future Diabetes Population Size and Related Costs for the U.S.” | USA | Diabetes | Survey | Multistate model | 2033 | Diabetes Care | |
46 | Tobias et al. (2008): “Burden of Alzheimer’s disease: population-based estimates and projections for New Zealand, 2006–2031” | New Zealand | Dementia/ Alzheimer’s | Literature review | Multistate model | 2031 | Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry | |
47 | Dall et al. (2013): “An aging population and growing disease burden will require a large and specialized health care workforce by 2025” | USA | Various | Survey | Trend extrapolation | 2025 | Health Affairs | |
48 | Boyle et al. (2001): “Projection of diabetes burden through 2050: impact of changing demography and disease prevalence in the U.S.” | USA | Diabetes | Survey | Trend extrapolation | 2050 | Diabetes Care | |
49 | Burgel et al. (2018): “An attempt at modeling COPD epidemiological trends in France” | France | COPD | Mixed data sources | Multistate model | 2025 | Respiratory Research | |
50 | Jorm et al. (2005): “Projections of future numbers of dementia cases in Australia with and without prevention” | Australia | Dementia/ Alzheimer’s | Other epidemiological studies | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2050 | Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry | |
51 | Sloane et al. (2002): “The public health impact of Alzheimer’s disease, 2000–2050: potential implication of treatment advances” | USA | Dementia/ Alzheimer’s | Literature review | Multistate model | 2050 | Annual Review of Public Health | |
52 | Heo et al. (2008): “Population projection of US adults with lifetime experience of depressive disorder by age and sex from year 2005 to 2050” | USA | Depression | Survey | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2050 | International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry | |
53 | Brookmeyer & Gray (2000): “Methods for projecting the incidence and prevalence of chronic diseases in aging populations: application to Alzheimer’s disease” | USA | Dementia/ Alzheimer’s | Literature review | Multistate model (Illness-death model) | 2050 | https://doi.org/10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(20,000,615/30)19:11/12 < 1481::aid-sim440 > 3.0.co;2-u | Statistics in Medicine |
54 | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (2003): “Public health and aging: projected prevalence of self-reported arthritis or chronic joint symptoms among persons aged > 65 years--United States, 2005–2030” | USA | Arthritis | Survey | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2030 | PMID: 12809109 | MMWR Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report |
55 | Odden et al. (2011): “The Impact of the Aging Population on Coronary Heart Disease in the U.S.” | USA | CHD | Mixed data sources | Multistate model | 2040 | American Journal of Medicine | |
56 | Brinks et al. (2012): “Prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Germany in 2040: estimates from an epidemiological model” | Germany | Diabetes | Survey | Multistate model (Illness-death model) | 2040 | European Journal of Epidemiology | |
57 | Stewart et al. (2003): “Heart failure and the aging population: an increasing burden in the twenty-first century?” | GB | Heart failure | Mixed data sources | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2020 | Heart | |
58 | Holt et al. (2011): “Forecasting the burden of advanced knee osteoarthritis over a 10-year period in a cohort of 60–64 year-old US adults” | USA | Arthrosis | Mixed data sources | Multistate model | 2020 | Osteoarthritis and Cartilage | |
59 | Saaddine et al. (2008): “Projection of diabetic retinopathy and other major eye diseases among people with diabetes mellitus: United States, 2005–2050” | USA | Various | Survey | Multistate model(Illness-death model) | 2050 | Archives of Ophthalmology | |
60 | Vickland et al. (2011): “Who pays and who benefits? How different models of shared responsibilities between formal and informal carers influence projections of costs of dementia management” | Australia | Dementia/ Alzheimer’s | Literature review | Trend extrapolation | 2040 | BMC Public Health | |
61 | Moran et al. (2008): “The future impact of population growth and aging on coronary heart disease in China: projections from the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model-China” | China | CHD | Mixed data sources | Multistate model | 2030 | BMC Public Health | |
62 | Jagger et al. (2009): “The effect of dementia trends and treatments on longevity and disability: a simulation model based on the MRC Cognitive Function and Ageing Study (MRC CFAS)” | GB | Dementia/ Alzheimer’s | Other epidemiological studies | Multistate model | 2026 | Age and Ageing | |
63 | Ackerman et al. (2019): “The projected burden of primary total knee and hip replacement for osteoarthritis in Australia to the year 2030” | Australia | Joint replacement | Registries | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2030 | BMC Musculoskeletal Disorders | |
64 | Schaubel et al. (1995): “End-stage renal disease projections for Canada to 2005 using Poisson and Markov models” | Canada | Kidney disease | Registries | Multistate model and trend extrapolation | 2005 | International Journal of Epidemiology | |
65 | Mura et al. (2010): “How many dementia cases in France and Europe? Alternative projections and scenarios 2010–2050” | Various | Dementia/ Alzheimer’s | Other epidemiological studies | Multistate model | 2050 | European Journal of Neurology | |
66 | Parsons & Somervaille (2000): “Estimation and projection of population lung cancer trends (United Kingdom)” | GB | Pulmonary cancer | Registries | Trend extrapolation | 2015 | Cancer Causes & Control | |
67 | Soerjomataram et al. (2011): “Reducing inequalities in lung cancer incidence through smoking policies” | Netherlands | Pulmonary cancer | Survey | Trend extrapolation | 2050 | Lung Cancer | |
68 | Robertsson et al. (2000): “Past incidence and future demand for knee arthroplasty in Sweden: a report from the Swedish Knee Arthroplasty Register regarding the effect of past and future population changes on the number of arthroplasties performed” | Sweden | Joint replacement | Registries | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2030 | Acta Orthopaedica Scandinavica | |
69 | Murakami & Ohashi (2001): “Projected number of diabetic renal disease patients among insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus children in Japan using a Markov model with probabilistic sensitivity analysis” | Japan | Kidney disease | Literature review | Multistate model | 2015 | International Journal of Epidemiology | |
70 | Pritzkuleit et al. (2010): “Disease numbers in pneumology - a projection to 2060” | Germany | Various | Literature review | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2060 | Pneumologie | |
71 | Rowley & Bezold (2012): “Creating public awareness: state 2025 diabetes forecasts” | USA | Diabetes | Literature review | Multistate model | 2025 | Population Health Management | |
72 | Narayan et al. (2006): “Impact of recent increase in incidence on future diabetes burden: U.S., 2005–2050” | USA | Diabetes | Survey | Multistate model (Illness-death model) | 2006 | Diabetes Care | |
73 | Fontaine et al. (2007): “Projected prevalence of US adults with self-reported doctor-diagnosed arthritis, 2005 to 2050” | USA | Arthritis | Survey | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2050 | Clinical Rheumatology | |
74 | Ruwaard et al. (1993): “Forecasting the number of diabetic patients in The Netherlands in 2005” | Netherlands | Diabetes | Mixed data sources | Multistate model (Illness-death model) | 2005 | American Journal of Public Health | |
75 | Hebert et al. (2004): “State-specific projections through 2025 of Alzheimer disease prevalence” | USA | Dementia/Alzheimer’s | Other epidemiological studies | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2025 | Neurology | |
76 | Gao et al. (2017): “Nephrology Dialysis Transplantation” | Canada | Various | Mixed data sources | Trend extrapolation | 2025 | BMC Nephrology | |
77 | Feenstra et al. (2001): “The impact of aging and smoking on the future burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a model analysis in the Netherlands” | Netherlands | COPD | Other epidemiological studies | Multistate model | 2015 | American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine | |
78 | Danielsen et al. (2017): “Prevalence of heart failure in the elderly and future projections: the AGES-Reykjavík study” | Iceland | Heart failure | Other epidemiological studies | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2060 | Scandinavian Cardiovascular Journal | |
79 | Sharif et al. (2015): “Projecting the direct cost burden of osteoarthritis in Canada using a microsimulation model” | Canada | Arthrosis | Mixed data sources | Trend extrapolation | 2031 | Osteoarthritis and Cartilage | |
80 | Gouveia et al. (2019): “The current and future burden of heart failure in Portugal” | Portugal | Heart failure | Mixed data sources | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2036 | ESC Heart Failure | |
81 | Standfield et al. (2018): “A simulation of dementia epidemiology and resource use in Australia” | Australia | Dementia/ Alzheimer’s | Literature review | Trend extrapolation | 2050 | Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health | |
82 | Menvielle et al. (2010): “Scenarios of future lung cancer incidence by educational level: Modelling study in Denmark” | Denmark | Pulmonary cancer | Mixed data sources | Trend extrapolation | 2050 | European Journal of Cancer | |
83 | Peters et al. (2010): “Demographic change and disease rates: a projection until 2050” | Germany | Various | Literature review | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2050 | Bundesgesund-heitsblatt Gesundheits-forschung Gesundheits-schutz | |
84 | Brinks et al. (2014): “Age-specific prevalence of diagnosed systemic lupus erythematosus in Germany 2002 and projection to 2030” | Germany | Others | Routine data | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2030 | Lupus | |
85 | Oberaigner & Geiger-Gritsch (2014): “Prediction of cancer incidence in Tyrol/Austria for year of diagnosis 2020” | Austria | Cancer | Registries | Trend extrapolation | 2020 | Wiener klinische Wochenschrift | |
86 | Nowossadeck et al.: (2014): “The future incidence of colorectal and lung cancers: results of the calculation of different scenarios for the year 2020” | Germany | Cancer | Registries | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2020 | Bundesgesund-heitsblatt Gesundheits-forschung Gesundheits-schutz | |
87 | Bonneux et al. (1994): “Estimating clinical morbidity due to ischemic heart disease and congestive heart failure: the future rise of heart failure” | Netherlands | Heart failure | Mixed data sources | Multistate model | 2010 | American Journal of Public Health | |
88 | Nowatzki et al. (2011): “Projection of future cancer incidence and new cancer cases in Manitoba, 2006–2025” | Canada | Cancer | Registries | Trend extrapolation | 2025 | PMID: 21466757 | Chronic Diseases in Canada |
89 | Salomaa et al. (2013): “Aging of the population may not lead to an increase in the numbers of acute coronary events: a community surveillance study and modelled forecast of the future” | Finland | CHD | Registries | Trend extrapolation | 2050 | Heart | |
90 | Didkowska et al. (2011): “Future lung cancer incidence in Poland and Finland based on forecasts on hypothetical changes in smoking habits” | Various | Pulmonary cancer | Mixed data sources | Trend extrapolation | 2030 | Acta Oncologica | |
91 | Estes et al. (2018): “Modeling NAFLD disease burden in China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, United Kingdom, and United States for the period 2016–2030” | Various | Others | Literature review | Multistate model | 2030 | Journal of Hepatology | |
92 | McLean et al. (2016): “Projecting the COPD population and costs in England and Scotland: 2011 to 2030” | GB | COPD | Mixed data sources | Multistate model | 2030 | Scientific Reports | |
93 | Firlei et al. (2007): “The prevalence of COPD in Austria--the expected change over the next decade” | Austria | COPD | Other epidemiological studies | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2020 | Wiener klinische Wochenschrift | |
94 | Cobiac & Scarborough (2017): “Translating the WHO 25 × 25 goals into a UK context: the PROMISE modelling study” | GB | Various | Mixed data sources | Trend extrapolation | 2030 | BMJ Open | |
95 | Marimuthu (2008): “Projection of cancer incidence in five cities and cancer mortality in India” | India | Cancer | Registries | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2008 | PMID: 18453733 | Indian Journal of Cancer |
96 | Soerjomataram et al. (2010): “Impact of a smoking and alcohol intervention programme on lung and breast cancer incidence in Denmark: An example of dynamic modelling with Prevent” | Denmark | Pulmonary cancer | Mixed data sources | Trend extrapolation | 2050 | European Journal of Cancer | |
97 | Edwards et al. (2014): “A novel approach for the accurate prediction of thoracic surgery workforce requirements in Canada” | Canada | Pulmonary cancer | Survey | Trend extrapolation | 2030 | The Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery | |
98 | Estes et al. (2018): “Modeling the epidemic of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease demonstrates an exponential increase in burden of disease” | USA | Others | Literature review | Multistate model | 2030 | Hepatology | |
99 | Perruccio et al. (2006): “Revisiting arthritis prevalence projections--it’s more than just the aging of the population” | Canada | Arthritis | Survey | Trend extrapolation | 2021 | PMID: 16960946 | Journal of Rheumatology |
100 | Nepal et al. (2014): “Rising midlife obesity will worsen future prevalence of dementia” | Australia | Dementia/ Alzheimer’s | Literature review | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2050 | PLoS One | |
101 | Rahib et al. (2014): “Projecting cancer incidence and deaths to 2030: the unexpected burden of thyroid, liver, and pancreas cancers in the United States” | USA | Cancer | Mixed data sources | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2030 | Cancer Research | |
102 | Orenstein & Shi (2016): “Microsimulation Modeling of Coronary Heart Disease: Maximizing the Impact of Nonprofit Hospital-Based Interventions” | USA | CHD | Survey | Trend extrapolation | 2030 | INQUIRY: The Journal of Health Care Organization, Provision, and Financing | |
103 | Quante et al. (2016): “Projections of cancer incidence and cancer-related deaths in Germany by 2020 and 2030” | Germany | Cancer | Registries | Trend extrapolation | 2030 | Cancer Medicine | |
104 | Gilbertson et al. (2005): “Projecting the number of patients with end-stage renal disease in the United States to the year 2015” | USA | Kidney disease | Survey | Multistate model | 2005 | Journal of the American Society of Nephrology | |
105 | Beelte et al. (2008): “Lung cancer incidence and mortality: current trends and projections based on data from Schleswig-Holstein” | Germany | Pulmonary cancer | Registries | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2020 | Deutsche Medizinische Wochenschrift | |
106 | Tsoi et al. (2017): “Cancer burden with ageing population in urban regions in China: projection on cancer registry data from World Health Organization” | China | Cancer | Registries | Trend extrapolation | 2030 | British Medical Bulletin | |
107 | Okura et al. (2008): “Impending epidemic: future projection of heart failure in Japan to the year 2055” | Japan | Heart failure | Other epidemiological studies | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2055 | Circulation Journal | |
108 | Ansah et al. (2018): “Projection of Eye Disease Burden in Singapore” | Singapore | Others | Other epidemiological studies | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2040 | PMID: 29493707 | Annals Academy of Medicine Singapore |
109 | Heidenreich et al. (2011): “Forecasting the future of cardiovascular disease in the United States: a policy statement from the American Heart Association” | USA | Various | Survey | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2030 | Circulation | |
110 | Bahr et al. (2015): “Prognosis of population-related morbidity for common cancers in Germany--Effects on health care” | Germany | Cancer | Registries | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2020 | Deutsche Medizinische Wochenschrift | |
111 | Weinstein et al. (1987): “Forecasting coronary heart disease incidence, mortality, and cost: the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model” | USA | CHD | Mixed data sources | Multistate model | 2010 | American Journal of Public Health | |
112 | Campbell et al. (2018): “The present and future burden of previously treated advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) by histology and line of therapy in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain: model-based predictions” | Various | Pulmonary cancer | Registries | Trend extrapolation | 2020 | Population Health Metrics | |
113 | Moran et al. (2010): “Future cardiovascular disease in china: markov model and risk factor scenario projections from the coronary heart disease policy model-china” | China | CHD | Other epidemiological studies | Multistate model and trend extrapolation | 2020 | Circulation: Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes | |
114 | Kingston et al. (2018): “Forecasting the care needs of the older population in England over the next 20 years: estimates from the Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) modelling study” | GB | Various | Other epidemiological studies | Multistate model | 2035 | The Lancet Public Health | |
115 | Baik (2019): “Projection of Diabetes Prevalence in Korean Adults for the Year 2030 Using Risk Factors Identified from National Data” | Korea | Diabetes | Survey | Trend extrapolation | 2030 | Diabetes and Metabolism Journal | |
116 | Lee et al. (2016): “Epidemiology of Heart Failure in Korea: Present and Future” | Korea | Heart failure | Routine data | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2040 | Korean Circulation Journal | |
117 | Mukasheva et al. (2019): “Forecasting the Prevalence of Diabetes Mellitus Using Econometric Models” | Kazakhstan | Diabetes | Registries | Trend extrapolation | 2018 | Diabetes Therapy | |
118 | Pandya et al. (2013): “More americans living longer with cardiovascular disease will increase costs while lowering quality of life” | USA | CHD | Survey | Trend extrapolation | 2030 | Health Affairs | |
119 | Pan et al. (2010): “Burden of diabetes in the adult Chinese population: A systematic literature review and future projections” | China | Diabetes | Literature review | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2016 | International Journal of General Medicine | |
120 | Chen et al. (2011): “Bayesian age-period-cohort prediction of lung cancer incidence in China” | China | Pulmonary cancer | Registries | Trend extrapolation | 2020 | Thoracic Cancer | |
121 | Brookmeyer et al. (2007): “Forecasting the global burden of Alzheimer’s disease” | Global | Dementia/ Alzheimer’s | Literature review | Multistate model | 2050 | Alzheimers and Dementia | |
122 | Boyle et al. (2010): “Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult population: dynamic modeling of incidence, mortality, and prediabetes prevalence” | USA | Diabetes | Literature review | Multistate model and trend extrapolation | 2050 | Population Health Metrics | |
123 | Wong et al. (2018): “Projecting the Burden of Chronic Kidney Disease in a Developed Country and Its Implications on Public Health” | Singapore | Kidney disease | Registries | Multistate model | 2035 | International Journal of Nephrology | |
124 | Bai et al. (2018): “The trends and projections in the incidence and mortality of liver cancer in urban Shanghai: a population-based study from 1973 to 2020” | Shanghai | Cancer | Registries | Trend extrapolation | 2020 | Clinical Epidemiology | |
125 | Islek et al. (2016): “Estimating the potential contribution of stroke treatments and preventative policies to reduce the stroke and ischemic heart disease mortality in Turkey up to 2032: a modelling study” | Turkey | CHD | Mixed data sources | Multistate model | 2032 | BMC Public Health | |
126 | Guzman-Castillo et al. (2017): “Forecasted trends in disability and life expectancy in England and Wales up to 2025: a modelling study” | GB | Various | Other epidemiological studies | Multistate model | 2025 | The Lancet Public Health | |
127 | Phan et al. (2014): “Forecasting the burden of type 2 diabetes in Singapore using a demographic epidemiological model of Singapore” | Singapore | Diabetes | Mixed data sources | Multistate model | 2050 | BMJ Open Diabetes Research and Care | |
128 | Suka et al. (2004): “The national burdens of rheumatoid arthritis and osteoarthritis in Japan: projections to the year 2010, with future changes in severity distribution” | Japan | Various | Survey | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2010 | Modern Rheumatology | |
129 | Earnest et al. (2019): “Forecasting annual incidence and mortality rate for prostate cancer in Australia until 2022 using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models” | Australia | Cancer | Registries | Trend extrapolation | 2022 | BMJ Open | |
130 | Wancata et al. (2003): “Number of dementia sufferers in Europe between the years 2000 and 2050” | Various | Dementia/ Alzheimer’s | Literature review | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2050 | European Psychiatry | |
131 | Li et al. (2019): “Prevalence, incidence and future projection of diabetic eye disease in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis” | Various | Others | Literature review | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2050 | European Journal of Epidemiology | |
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154 | Wanneveich et al. (2018): “Impact of intervention targeting risk factors on chronic disease burden” | France | Dementia/ Alzheimer’s | Other epidemiological studies | Multistate model (Illness-death model) | 2030 | Statistical Methods in Medical Research | |
155 | Vickland et al. (2010): “A computer model of dementia prevalence in Australia: foreseeing outcomes of delaying dementia onset, slowing disease progression, and eradicating dementia types” | Australia | Dementia/ Alzheimer’s | Literature review | Trend extrapolation | 2040 | Dementia and Geriatric Cognitive Disorders | |
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158 | Modig et al. (2012): “The aging population in Sweden: can declining incidence rates in MI, stroke and cancer counterbalance the future demographic challenges?” | Sweden | Various | Registries | Trend extrapolation (Status quo) | 2050 | European Journal of Epidemiology | |
159 | Tönnies et al. (2019): “Projected number of people with diagnosed Type 2 diabetes in Germany in 2040” | Germany | Diabetes | Mixed data sources | Multistate model (Illness-death model) | 2040 | Diabetic Medicine | |
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