Skip to main content

Table 3 Determined disease-specific variables

From: Healing, surviving, or dying? – projecting the German future disease burden using a Markov illness-death model

  

Age cohort

Total

18–29

30–44

45–64

65–84

> 85

German population

 Million

83.0 (5.5, 6.0)

11.5 (7.6. 7.9)

15.5 (12.3, 12.3)

24.6 (8.5, 7.1)

15.6 (8.5, 7.1)

2.3 (1.5, 0.7)

 %

 

13.8 (6.6, 7.2)

18.7 (9.2, 9.5)

29.7 (14.8, 14.8)

18.9 (10.3, 8.5)

2.8 (1.8, 0.9)

Study population

 Million

4.0 (2.1, 1.9)

0.6 (0.3, 0.3)

0.7 (0.4, 0.3)

1.1 (0.6, 0.5)

0.8 (0.4, 0.3)

0.13 (0.09, 0.03)

 %

 

15.3 (7.6, 7.7)

17.9 (9.1, 8.8)

27.8 (14.4, 13.4)

19.4 (11.1, 8.3)

3.1 (2.3, 0.8)

Life expectancy total population

98.89 (98.90, 98.88)

99.97 (99.98, 99.96)

99.92 (99.94, 99.90)

99.51 (99.65, 99.37)

97.11 (97.67, 96.43)

85.51 (86.08, 84,31)

Arthrosis

p (%)

13.4 (15.8, 10.8)

0.4 (0.3, 0.4)

2.1 (2.1, 2.1)

15.6 (17.6, 13.5)

37.3 (41.6, 32.1)

46.9 (49.5, 41.5)

i (%)

1.5 (1.6, 1.3)

0.2 (0.2, 0.2)

0.7 (0.7, 0.7)

2.6 (2.8, 2.3)

2.7 (2.8, 2.5)

2.1 (2.0, 2.2)

r (% of patients)

1.6 (1.4, 1.8)

11.5 (12.4, 10.8)

6.3 (6.0, 6.6)

2.2 (2.0, 2.5)

1.0 (1.0, 1.1)

0.2 (0.2, 0.2)

md (%-points)

CA

p (%)

0.20 (0.14, 0.26)

0.00 (0.00, 0.00)

0.01 (0.01, 0.01)

0.22 (0.17, 0.27)

0.63 (0.39, 0.92)

0.35 (0.21, 0.63)

i (%)

0.07 (0.05, 0.09)

0.00 (0.00, 0.00)

0.01 (0.01, 0.01)

0.08 (0.06, 0.11)

0.21 (0.13, 0.32)

0.12 (0.07, 0.22)

r (% of patients)

1.9 (2.5, 1.6)

0.5 (0.7, 0.2)

2.2 (2.7, 1.9)

1.8 (2.4, 1.4)

1.8 (2.2, 1.5)

md (%-points)

24.4 (22.0, 25.7)

14.9 (14.2, 15.8)

23.4 (20.9, 25.0)

24.8 (22.7, 25.8)

29.1 (25.1, 31.9)

CHD

p (%)

5.9 (4.5, 7.3)

0.0 (0.0, 0.0)

0.3 (0.1, 0.5)

4.8 (2.5, 7.2)

19.2 (14.1, 25.4)

29.2 (25.8, 36.4)

i (%)

0.7 (0.6, 0.8)

0.0 (0.0, 0.0)

0.1 (0.1, 0.2)

0.8 (0.5, 1.0)

1.9 (1.6, 2.1)

2.0 (1.9, 2.1)

r (% of patients)

1.4 (2.0, 1.0)

8.3 (13.2, 6.9)

2.7 (5.2, 1.8)

1.0 (1.7, 0.6)

0.2 (0.3, 0.1)

md (%-points)

1.3 (1.3, 1.2)

1.1 (1.6, 0.9)

1.0 (1.0, 1.0)

1.4 (1.5, 1.4)

0.9 (0.9, 0.9)

COPD

p (%)

4.1 (3.6, 4.6)

0.3 (0.3, 0.3)

0.9 (0.9, 1.0)

4.9 (4.2, 5.6)

10.8 (8.7, 13.3)

11.3 (9.1, 15.7)

i (%)

0.5 (0.4, 0.5)

0.1 (0.1, 0.1)

0.2 (0.2, 0.2)

0.7 (0.6, 0.8)

1.0 (0.8, 1.2)

0.9 (0.8,1.1)

r (% of patients)

2.5 (2.9, 2.2)

7.8 (8.3, 7.3)

6.3 (6.5, 6.1)

2.8 (3.2, 2.5)

1.6 (2.2, 1.2)

0.4 (0.6, 0.2)

md (%-points)

1.4 (1.2, 1.7)

0.0 (0.0, 0.0)

0.3 (0.1, 0.4)

0.9 (0.7, 1.1)

2.0 (1.6, 2.3)

1.7 (1.2, 2.2)

CVD

p (%)

4.6 (4.4, 4.8)

0.1 (0.1, 0.1)

0.4 (0.4, 0.4)

3.2 (2.7, 3.8)

15.1 (13.3, 17.4)

25.5 (24.2, 28.3)

i (%)

0.7 (0.7, 0.7)

0.0 (0.0, 0.0)

0.1 (0.1, 0.1)

0.7 (0.6, 0.8)

2.2 (2.0, 2.4)

3.0 (3.0, 3.0)

r (% of patients)

2.9 (3.2, 2.5)

8.9 (9.0, 8.9)

6.7 (7.3, 6.0)

4.1 (3.1, 3.7)

2.6 (3.1, 2.2)

1.7 (1.9, 1.3)

md (%-points)

1.4 (1.4, 1.4)

1.2 (1.1, 1.3)

1.4 (1.2, 1.6)

1.1 (1.0, 1.3)

1.5 (1.5, 1.5)

1.6 (1.7, 1.3)

Dementia

p (%)

2.0 (2.4, 1.6)

0.0 (0.0, 0.0)

0.0 (0.0, 0.0)

0.4 (0.3, 0.5)

6.3 (6.3, 6.2)

26.4 (28.1, 22.9)

i (%)

0.4 (0.5, 0.4)

0.0 (0.0, 0.0)

0.0 (0.0, 0.0)

0.1 (0.1, 0.1)

1.4 (1.4, 1.5)

4.8 (4.9, 4.7)

r (% of patients)

md (%-points)

6.0 (5.2, 7.2)

1.5 (1.5, 1.5)

3.3 (2.5, 3.9)

6.3 (5.4, 7.3)

5.9 (5.1, 8.1)

Depression

p (%)

12.5 (16.1, 8.7)

5.0 (6.6, 3.6)

9.9 (12.7, 7.2)

17.7 (22.3, 13.1)

20.8 (25.9, 14.7)

24.8 (28.5, 17.1)

i (%)

0.9 (1.0, 0.8)

0.8 (1.1, 0.7)

0.9 (1.1, 0.7)

1.0 (1.1, 1.0)

1.1 (1.2, 1.0)

1.4 (1.5, 1.4)

r (% of patients)

3.2 (2.9, 3.6)

5.8 (5.8, 5.8)

4.1 (4.0, 4.4)

3.1 (2.8, 3.6)

2.6 (2.4, 3.0)

1.3 (1.4, 1.1)

md (%-points)

0.1 (0.0, 0.1)

0.0 (0.0, 0.1)

0.1 (0.0, 0.1)

0.1 (0.0, 0.1)

0.1 (0.0, 0.2)

Diabetes

p (%)

11.1 (10.9, 11.2)

0.8 (0.9, 0.6)

2.5 (2.7, 2.3)

12.1 (10.4, 13.8)

31.6 (29.6, 34.1)

34.3 (34.2, 34.5)

i (%)

0.7 (0.7, 0.7)

0.2 (0.3, 0.1)

0.5 (0.6, 0.4)

1.0 (0.9, 1.2)

1.4 (1.3, 1.5)

1.1 (1.0, 1.2)

r (% of patients)

0.6 (0.7, 0.5)

3.4 (4.8, 1.4)

2.1 (3.1, 1.0)

0.7 (0.7, 0.6)

0.4 (0.5, 0.4)

0.2 (0.2, 0.1)

md (%-points)

0.4 (0.4, 0.4)

0.1 (0.1, 0.2)

0.2 (0.1, 0.3)

0.2 (0.1, 0.3)

0.4 (0.4, 0.4)

0.3 (0.3, 0.3)

Dorsal pain

p (%)

28.3 (31.7, 24.8)

12.0 (13.8, 10.3)

22.7 (25.3, 20.1)

39.4 (43.3, 35.5)

48.7 (52.1, 44.5)

45.2 (46.5, 42.4)

i (%)

2.5 (2.5, 2.4)

3.0 (3.3, 2.8)

3.3 (3.5, 3.2)

2.8 (2.8, 2.9)

2.1 (2.1, 2.1)

1.6 (1.6, 1.8)

r (% of patients)

1.7 (1.6, 1.9)

3.1 (3.0, 3.1)

2.0 (1.9, 2.2)

1.5 (1.3, 1.7)

1.5 (1.4, 1.6)

1.5 (1.5, 1.3)

md (%-points)

HF

p (%)

4.5 (4.6, 4.4)

0.0 (0.0, 0.1)

0.2 (0.2, 0.3)

2.5 (1.8, 3.2)

14.4 (13.4, 15.7)

35.3 (35.7, 34.5)

i (%)

0.9 (0.9, 0.9)

0.0 (0.0, 0.0)

0.1 (0.1, 0.1)

0.7 (0.5, 0.9)

2.8 (2.6, 3.1)

4.9 (4.6, 5.4)

r (% of patients)

2.6 (2.3, 2.9)

14.1 (15.3, 13.5)

11.4 (13.3, 10.4)

6.9 (7.1, 6.8)

2.1 (2.2, 2.0)

0.2 (0.2, 0.1)

md (%-points)

4.3 (3.7, 4.9)

4.1 (5.0, 3.7)

3.3 (3.6, 3.1)

3.1 (2.9, 3.3)

4.5 (3.8, 5.2)

4.7 (4.0, 6.2)

  1. Source: Own Data and depiction in combination with data of Destatis and mortality.org, in parentheses differentiated by gender (female/male) Abbreviations: p prevalence rate, i incidence rate, r recovery rate, md mortality difference, CA pulmonary, bronchial and tracheal cancer, CHD coronary heart disease, COPD chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, CVD cerebrovascular diseases, HF heart failure