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Table 1 Comparison of time-series forecasting models, using Standard error of the estimate, SSE and Adjusted R2

From: Magnitude, trend, and causes of under-five mortality from Kilite-Awlaelo health demographic surveillance database, northern Ethiopia, 2009–2017

Trend Prediction Model Standard error of the estimate SSE Adjusted R2 P-Value
Linear Trend U5MR = 42.3–1.6(year code) 4.83 163.48 0.42 0.036
Quadratic Trend U5MR = 39.69 + 0.652(year code) - 0.283 (squared year code) 4.81 138.74 0.42 0.080
Exponential Trend U5MR = 42.76 (0.95coded year) 0.06 0.024 0.44 0.030
Autoregressive model (AR) U5MR (current year) = 31.29 + 0.10(previous year) 6.81 278.50 −0.16 0.850