Magnitude, trend, and causes of under-five mortality from Kilite-Awlaelo health demographic surveillance database, northern Ethiopia, 2009–2017

Table 1 Comparison of time-series forecasting models, using Standard error of the estimate, SSE and Adjusted R²

Trend	Prediction Model	Standard error of the estimate	SSE	Adjusted R²	P-Value
Linear Trend	U5MR = 42.3–1.6(year code)	4.83	163.48	0.42	0.036
Quadratic Trend	U5MR = 39.69 + 0.652(year code) - 0.283 (squared year code)	4.81	138.74	0.42	0.080
Exponential Trend	U5MR = 42.76 (0.95^{coded year})	0.06	0.024	0.44	0.030
Autoregressive model (AR)	U5MR _{(current year)} = 31.29 + 0.10_{(previous year)}	6.81	278.50	−0.16	0.850

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