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Table 2 Model estimators using WHO and Moving Epidemics Method (MEM), 2005/2006 to 2016/2017 seasons, Morocco (*)

From: Establishing seasonal and alert influenza thresholds in Morocco

Estimators used

Analysis method

WHO

MEM

MEM

Type of data used

Weekly proportion of ILI patients among all outpatients

Weekly proportion of ILI patients among all outpatients

Estimated weekly proportion of confirmed ILI patientsa among all outpatients

Number of seasons analyzed

11

11

3

Average epidemic start week

46b

49

50

Average peak week of the seasons

43 to 46

3

3

3

Average epidemic length (in weeks)

24

14

15

Epidemic percentagec

38.06%

45.62%

95.41%

Seasonal (WHO) or pre-epidemic threshold (MEM)

0.90%

1.51%

0.03%

Intensity thresholds

 Moderate/medium thresholdd

2.13%

2.12%

0.59%

 High threshold

2.77%

2.81%

1.5%

 Very high threshold (extraordinary)

3.06%

3.19%

2.05%

  1. (*) 2009/2010 pandemic year excluded
  2. aComposite parameter defined as the product of the ILI proportion and the percentage positive
  3. bGiven the three-consecutive-week-declaration rule considered for the WHO method
  4. cPercentage of the cumulative sum of values in the epidemic period of the seasons in the model
  5. dModerate threshold is used for WHO method and medium threshold for MEM