Author | Country | Characteristics | Follow-up time | Predictor variable: Physical activity | Outcome of interest | Main results |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Carlsson et al. (2013) [36] | Sweden (Swedish Twin Registry) | N = 23,539 | Baseline: 1967–1972 | Self-reported LTPA | Incident type 2 diabetes | Risk of type 2 diabetes decreased with PA: HR [95% CI] |
- Low | - Low: 1.0 (reference) | |||||
Follow-up: 1998–2002 | - Moderate | - Moderate: 0.77 [0.61, 0.96] | ||||
- high | - High: 0.53 [0.37, 0.75] | |||||
Elwood et al. (2013) [40] | UK (Caerphilly Prospective Study CaPS) | N = 2235 men, 45–59 years | 30 years | Self-reported PA | Incident diabetes (self-reported) | OR [95% CI] for regular activity and incident diabetes |
Baseline: 1979–1983 | - 0.63 [0.46, 0.85] | |||||
Follow-up: 1984–1988, 1989–1993, 1993–1997, 2009 | ||||||
Grøntved et al. (2014) [41] | USA (Nurses’Health Study NHS I and II) | N = 99,316 women | 8 years | Self-reported PA (time spent on resistance exercise per week, lower intensity muscular conditioning exercises (yoga, stretching, toning), aerobic MVPA) | Incident diabetes (self-report confirmed using standardized criteria; validated in sub-sample through medical chart review) | RR [95% CI] for incident diabetes for aerobic MVPA |
Baseline (NHS I): 2000 | - None: 1.0 (reference) | |||||
- 1–29 min: 0.83 [0.74, 0.92] | ||||||
Baseline (NHS II): 2001 | - 30–59 min: 0.73 [0.65, 0.82] | |||||
- 60–150 min: 0.66 [0.60, 0.73] | ||||||
Follow-up (NHS I): 2008 | - None | - ≥ 150 min: 0.46 [0.41, 0.50] | ||||
- 1–29 min/wk | - Trend: p < 0.001 | |||||
Follow-up (NHS II): 2009 | - 30–59 min/wk | Engaging in at least 150 min/wk of aerobic MVPA and at least 60 min/wk of muscle-strengthening activities was significantly associated with lower risk of incident diabetes compared with being inactive (pooled RR = 0.33 [0.29, 0.38]). | ||||
- 60–50 min/wk | ||||||
- >  150 min/wk | ||||||
Hjerkind et al. (2017) [37] | Norway (Nord- Trøndelag Health Study) | N = 38,413 with information on PA, 47% males | 11 years | Self-reported LTPA | Incident diabetes (self-reported; validated through medical record) | Risk of diabetes decreased with PAa: RR [95% CI] Women | Men: |
Baseline: 1984–1986 | - Low | |||||
- Medium | - Low: 1.0 (reference) | |||||
Follow-up: 1995–1997 | - High | - Medium: 0.81 [0.65, 1.00] | 0.80 [0.66, 0.98] | ||||
- High: 0.76 [0.61, 0.95] | 0.65 [0.51, 0.84] p = 0.01 | p < 0.01 | ||||||
Gradual inverse association between frequency, duration, intensity and risk of incident diabetes for males | ||||||
Gradual inverse association between frequency, intensity and risk of incident diabetes for females | ||||||
Ekelund et al. (2012) [42] | 8 European countries (EPIC–InterAct Study) | N = 11,669 men, 15,695 women | Median 12.3 years | Self-reported PA (OPA, LTPA) | Incident diabetes | A one level difference in PA (e.g. between inactive and moderately inactive) was associated with a 13% relative reduction in risk of incident diabetes in males (HR [95% CI] 0.87 [0.80, 0.94]) and 7% risk reduction in females (0.93 [0.89, 0.98])b |
- Inactive | ||||||
N = 15,934 subcohort (6009 men, 9925 women) | Baseline: 1991 | - Moderately inactive | ||||
Follow-up: 2007 | - Moderately active | |||||
- Active | ||||||
Increased risk of incident diabetes associated with lower levels of PA evident across BMI strata in both sexes, with the exception of obese women | ||||||
Jefferis et al. (2012) [38] | UK | N = 3012 men, 68.3 years | Median 7.1 years | Self-reported PA | Incident type 2 diabetes (self-report included after validation through medical record) | Risk of diabetes decreased with PA: Dose-response associationc: HR [95% CI] |
- None | ||||||
Baseline: 1996, 1998–2000 Follow-up: | - Occasional | - None: 1.0 (reference) | ||||
- Light | - Occasional: 0.54 [0.31, 0.96] | |||||
2006 | - Moderate | - Light: 0.34 [0.18, 0.65] | ||||
- Moderately vigorous | - Moderate: 0.33 [0.17, 0.65] | |||||
- Vigorous | - moderately vigorous: 0.32 [0.16, 0.61] | |||||
- vigorous: 0.26 [0.13, 0.53] p < 0.01 | ||||||
Taking up at least moderate intensity PA also associated with lower risk of diabetes. | ||||||
Koloverou et al. (2017) [39] | Greece (Attica Study) | N = 1485, 49% males | 10 years | Self-reported PA (MET-min/wk) | Incident diabetes (measured in biological sample or self-reported) | Moderate intensity PA associated with lower risk of incident diabetesd: OR [95% CI] |
Baseline: 2001–2002 | - Very low ≤150 | |||||
- Low = 150–330 | - Very low: 1.0 (reference) | |||||
Follow-up: 2011–2012 | - Moderate = 331–1484 | - Low: 0.77 [0.41, 1.49] | ||||
- High ≥1484 | - Moderate: 0.47 [0.24, 0.93] | |||||
- High: 1.04 [0.59, 1.82] | ||||||
Medina et al. (2018) [49] | Mexico (Mexico City Diabetes Study) | N = 1883, median 45 years (IQR 39–52); 42.7% males | Median 14.4 person years | Self-reported PA (occupational, leisure, total PA in MET-min/wk of MVPA) | Incident type 2 diabetes (measured, self-reported, taking medication) | Participants with leisure PA < 1 MET-min/wk had increased risk of incident diabetes (HR 1.45 [95% CI: 1.10, 1.92]) as compared to reference group (≥ 1200 MET-min/wk of MVPA; p = 0.008)e |
Baseline: 1989–1990 | ||||||
- 1 = < 1 | ||||||
No association between occupational and total PA and diabetes risk. | ||||||
Follow-up: 1993–1994, 1997–1998, 2008–2009 | - 2 = 1–599.9 | |||||
- 3 = 600–1199.9 | ||||||
- 4 = ≥ 1200 | ||||||
Mehlig et al. (2014) [43] | Sweden | N = 1448 women, 38–60 years | 34 years | Self-reported LTPA | Incident diabetes | LTPA is associated with an elevated risk in incident diabetes: HR [95% CI]f |
Baseline: 1968–1969 | - Almost inactive: low LTPA | |||||
- Some PA at least 4 h/wk | - Non-obese, active: 1.0 (reference) | |||||
Follow-up: 1974–1975, 1980–1981, 1992–1993, 2000–2001, 2000 | - Regular exercise | - Non-obese, inactive: 1.79 [1.15, 2.79] | ||||
- Regular training and competitive sports | - Obese, active: 2.43 [1.44, 4.09] | |||||
- Obese, inactive: 11.7 [6.28, 21.8] | ||||||
Shi et al. (2013) [44] | China | N = 51,464 men, 54.1 ± 9.3 years | Median 5.4 years | Self-reported PA MET level (in quintiles) | Incident diabetes (self-reported) | Total PA is associated with a reduced risk in incident diabetes: HR [95% CI] for MET levelg |
Baseline: 2002–2006 | - Q1 < 4.3 | - Q1: 1.0 (reference) | ||||
- Q2 4.3–6.5 | - Q2: 0.84 [0.72, 0.99] | |||||
Follow-up: 2004–2008, 2008–2011 | - Q3 6.5–8.9 | - Q3: 0.72 [0.61, 0.85] | ||||
- Q4 8.9–12.1 | - Q4: 0.66 [0.55, 0.78] | |||||
- Q5 ≥ 12.1 | - Q5: 0.65 [0.54, 0.77] | |||||
Williams & Thompson (2012) [50] | USA | N = 48,116 | Median 6.2 years | Self-reported PA MET-h/d | Incident diabetes | Greater MET-h/d is associated with lower risk of incident diabetes: HR [95% CI]h |
- Light | ||||||
Baseline: 1998–1999 | - Moderate | - Running: 0.879 [0.83, 0.929] | ||||
- Vigorous | - Walking: 0.877 [0.82, 0.93] | |||||
Follow-up: 2006 | - Other vigorous: 0.98 [0.95, 1.007] | |||||
- Other moderate: 0.969 [0.908, 1.02] | ||||||
- Other light: 0.99 [0.736, 1.12] |