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Table 1 Overview of longitudinal studies on the association between PA and the outcome of obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2)

From: The association between physical activity with incident obesity, coronary heart disease, diabetes and hypertension in adults: a systematic review of longitudinal studies published after 2012

Author

Country

Characteristics

Follow-up time

Predictor variable: Physical activity

Outcome of interest

Main results

Bell et al. (2014) [25]

UK, Whitehall II study

N = 3670, 73% male, 55.5 ± 6.0 years

10 years; Baseline 1997–1999

Follow-up: 2002–2004, 2007–2009

Self-reported, duration of MVPA (h/wk)

Incident obesity

OR [95% CI]: low level PA as referencea:

­-Low: 0–1.5

-High level PA 0.64 [0.44, 0.93] after 5 years

-Intermediate: 1.56–4.25

-High: 4.27–20.56

-High level PA 0.63 [0.45, 0.88] after 10 years

Montgomerie et al. (2014) [26]

Australia

N = 1521, 50.6% male, age 44.6 ± 16.22 years

2898.9 ± 402.29 days

Baseline: 1999–2003, follow-up: 2004–2006, 2008–2010

Self-reported, score: frequency x time per session x intensity

Incident obesity

RR [95% CI]: Association between physical inactivity & incident obesityb:

-Inactive: < 100 sedentary, 100–1600 low

-1.42 [1.03, 1.95] p = 0.030

-Active: 1600–3200 moderate, > 3200 high

Pavey et al. (2016) [27]

Australia

N = 2735 women, 24.6 (20.6–28.5) years

12 years Baseline: 2000

Follow-up: 2012

Self-reported, score (MET-min/wk)

Change in BMI category

OR [95% CI]: increasing cumulative PA with very low activity as referencec:

-Very low (< 250)

-Transition to obesity: 0.73 [0.59, 0.90], p < .05

OR [95% CI], very high cumulative PA with very low activity as referencec:

-Low (250 to < 500)

-Active (500 to < 1000)

-Very active (> 1000)

-Transition to obesity 0.52 [0.30, 0.92], p < .05

  1. Abbreviation: BMI Body Mass Index, CI confidence interval, h hour, MET metabolic equivalent, min minutes, MVPA moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, N number of participants, OR odds ratio, p p-value, PA physical activity, RR relative risk, SD Standard deviation, wk week
  2. a Model adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity; b Model adjusted for age, sex, chronic conditions (diabetes, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cardiovascular disease and mental health); c Model adjusted for educational level, area of residence, number of children, occupation, work time walking, work time in heavy labor, smoking status, alcohol consumption, energy intake, dieting, oral contraceptive pill use, number of chronic conditions