Advocating an attack against severe malaria: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Greenhalgh, Scott; Chandwani, Veda

doi:10.1186/s12889-019-8141-y

BMC Public Health

Table 1 Parameters values, distributions, and sources

From: Advocating an attack against severe malaria: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Symbol	Parameter	Base value	Distribution	Citation
c	Mosquito biting rate	1/3 day⁻¹	Exp(3)	[20]
α	Transmission probability (mosquito to human)	0.25	N(0.25,0.04)	[16]
β	Transmission probability (human to mosquito)	0.433	Beta(12.5,16.35)	[21]
m	Mosquito to human ratio	1 − 3.8		Fit
r_T	Recovery rate for clinical malaria (with chemotherapy)	1/21 day⁻¹		[16]
r_D	Recovery rate for severe malaria (without chemotherapy)	1 ∕ 180 day⁻¹		[16]
r_A	Recovery rate from asymptomatic malaria	1 ∕ 180 day⁻¹		[16]
1 ∕ r_P	Duration of post-treatment prophylaxis effect	28 days	U[21, 35]	[16]
r_U	Clearance rate of sub-patent infection	1 ∕ 180 day⁻¹		[16]
1 ∕ d₀	Mean mosquito life span	7.6 days	logN(1.98,0.31)	[14]
ϕ	probability of symptomatic incidence	0.5		[16]
f_t	probability clinical malaria is effectively treated	0.5	0.05 to 1	[14, 16]
ω	Proportion reporting for treatment to a healthcare setting	0.618	Beta(65.4,40.42)	[22]
ψ	Reduction in severe malaria incidence	–	0, 1/2, 1/7, 1/14	[10]
r	DALY discount rate	0.03		[23]
D_M	Disability weight of a malaria incidence	0.2078		[23]
D_S	Disability weight of a severe malaria incidence	0.133		[24]
D_N	Disability weight of neurological sequelae	0.471		[23]
D_A	Disability weight of severe malaria anemia	0.149		[24]
D_C	Disability weight of cerebral malaria	0.471		[25]
D_CA	Disability weight of cerebral malaria and severe malarial anemia	0.620		[25]
D_NA	Disability weight of neurological sequelae and severe malarial anemia	0.483		[23]
D_D	Disability weight of death	1.0		[23]
L_M	Duration of malaria incidence	5.1 days		[26]
L_S	Duration of severe malaria incidence	8.75 days		[27]
L_N	Duration of neurological sequelae	10.1 days		[28]
L_A	Duration of severe malarial anemia	11 days		[26]
L_C	Duration of cerebral malaria	6.5 days		[27]
L_CA	Duration of cerebral malaria and severe malarial anemia	11 days		[5]
L_NA	Duration of neurological sequelae and severe malarial anemia	11 days		[5]
L_D	Years of life lost in death	55 years		[29]
R_M	Risk of malaria infection	0.9943		[30]
R_S	Risk of severe malaria given malaria infection	0.0057		[30]
R_N	Risk of neurological sequelae given severe malaria	0.098		[28]
R_A	Risk of severe malarial anemia given severe malaria	0.322	U[0.043,1]	[31]
R_C	Risk of cerebral malaria given severe malaria	0.002		[30]
R_CA	Risk of cerebral malaria and severe malarial anemia given severe malaria infection	0.00096		[30]
R_NA	Risk of neurological sequelae and severe malarial anemia given severe malaria infection	0.0316		[28, 31]
death_S	Risk of death due to severe malaria			Additional file 1: Table S1
death_N	Risk of death due to neurological sequelae	0.1835		[32]
death_A	Risk of death due to severe malarial anemia	0.097		[32]
death_C	Risk of death due to cerebral malaria	0.192		[30]
death_CA	Risk of death due to cerebral malaria and severe malarial anemia	0.1835		[33]
death_NA	Risk of death due to neurological sequelae and severe malarial anemia	0.347		[23]
υ	Cost of a uncomplicated malaria incidence	5.84	Tri(2.36, 3.50, 23.65)	[34]
σ	Cost of a severe malaria incidence	30.26	Tri(15.64, 19.14, 137.87)	[34]
δ	Cost per serving of yogurt		Tri(0.2,0.245,0.29)	[35]
θ	Distribution costs per serving	0.075	U(0.06,0.09)	[36]
Y	Servings of yogurt consumed per week	2.27	U(2.21,2.33)	[37]

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