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Table 3 Parameter Values, Standard Deviations, and Distributional Assumption

From: The cost-effectiveness of screening tools used in the diagnosis of fetal alcohol spectrum disorder: a modelled analysis

Parameter and Reference

Mean (SD)

Distributional Assumption

Hypothetical cohort characteristics

 % Positive cases [24]

66.3% (1.4%)

Beta

 % Female

50.0%

Not varied

 Age screened Meconium Testing

Birth

Not varied

 Age screened NST

5 years

Not varied

Diagnostic accuracy of screening tools

 Meconium testing

  Sensitivity [25,26,27,28]

92.4% (8.1%)

Beta

  Specificity [25,26,27,28]

51.5% (19.7%)

Beta

 The NST

  Sensitivity [30,31,32,33]

85.9% (5.5%)

Beta

  Specificity [30,31,32,33]

72.9% (10.7%)

Beta

Accuracy of Diagnostic Testing

 Sensitivity

100%

Not varied

 Specificity

100%

Not varied

Cost of screening tools and Diagnostic Testing

 Meconium testing [15]

$175 ($18)

Normal (bounded ±25% of mean)

 The NST b

$20 ($2)

Normal (bounded ±25% of mean)

 Cost of diagnostic testing [12]

$3870 ($387)

Normal (bounded ±25% of mean)

Annual Cost of Healthcare Service Use

 First year of life [34]

$15,976 ($1598)

Log-normal

 Diagnosed FASD [34]

$3426 ($343)

Log-normal

 Undiagnosed FASD [34, 35]

$2713

Varied based on inputs a

  Diagnosed recommended to receive psychiatric care [35]

55.6% (7.3%)

Beta

  Undiagnosed recommended to receive psychiatric care [35]

33.0% (14.7%)

Beta

 No FASD [34, 35]

$3101

Not varied

Future Diagnosis Rate

 Rate of future diagnosis for undiagnosed patients c

5%

Uniform (bounded ±2%)

Mortality

 Diagnosed FASD [6]

3.15 (1.6)

Normal

 Increased mortality for undiagnosed

10%

Uniform (bounded ±10%)

 FASD relative to diagnosed c

  

 No FASDc

3.15 (2.0)

Normal

  1. The values for the Annual Cost of Healthcare Service Use in Table 3 reflect that prior to adjusting for inflation. The Annual Cost of Healthcare Service Use parameters were varied prior to adjusting for inflation and then inflated for probabilistic analysis
  2. a Inputs refer to Diagnosed recommended to receive psychiatric care and Undiagnosed recommended to receive psychiatric care
  3. b Parameter was informed with unpublished local data
  4. c Parameter was informed based on authors’ assumption