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Table 3 Parameter Values, Standard Deviations, and Distributional Assumption

From: The cost-effectiveness of screening tools used in the diagnosis of fetal alcohol spectrum disorder: a modelled analysis

Parameter and ReferenceMean (SD)Distributional Assumption
Hypothetical cohort characteristics
 % Positive cases [24]66.3% (1.4%)Beta
 % Female50.0%Not varied
 Age screened Meconium TestingBirthNot varied
 Age screened NST5 yearsNot varied
Diagnostic accuracy of screening tools
 Meconium testing
  Sensitivity [25,26,27,28]92.4% (8.1%)Beta
  Specificity [25,26,27,28]51.5% (19.7%)Beta
 The NST
  Sensitivity [30,31,32,33]85.9% (5.5%)Beta
  Specificity [30,31,32,33]72.9% (10.7%)Beta
Accuracy of Diagnostic Testing
 Sensitivity100%Not varied
 Specificity100%Not varied
Cost of screening tools and Diagnostic Testing
 Meconium testing [15]$175 ($18)Normal (bounded ±25% of mean)
 The NST b$20 ($2)Normal (bounded ±25% of mean)
 Cost of diagnostic testing [12]$3870 ($387)Normal (bounded ±25% of mean)
Annual Cost of Healthcare Service Use
 First year of life [34]$15,976 ($1598)Log-normal
 Diagnosed FASD [34]$3426 ($343)Log-normal
 Undiagnosed FASD [34, 35]$2713Varied based on inputs a
  Diagnosed recommended to receive psychiatric care [35]55.6% (7.3%)Beta
  Undiagnosed recommended to receive psychiatric care [35]33.0% (14.7%)Beta
 No FASD [34, 35]$3101Not varied
Future Diagnosis Rate
 Rate of future diagnosis for undiagnosed patients c5%Uniform (bounded ±2%)
Mortality
 Diagnosed FASD [6]3.15 (1.6)Normal
 Increased mortality for undiagnosed10%Uniform (bounded ±10%)
 FASD relative to diagnosed c  
 No FASDc3.15 (2.0)Normal
  1. The values for the Annual Cost of Healthcare Service Use in Table 3 reflect that prior to adjusting for inflation. The Annual Cost of Healthcare Service Use parameters were varied prior to adjusting for inflation and then inflated for probabilistic analysis
  2. a Inputs refer to Diagnosed recommended to receive psychiatric care and Undiagnosed recommended to receive psychiatric care
  3. b Parameter was informed with unpublished local data
  4. c Parameter was informed based on authors’ assumption