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Table 1 Summary of Completed and Planned EPI Forecasting Challenge Designs as of August 2019

From: Applying infectious disease forecasting to public health: a path forward using influenza forecasting examples

Challenge Name

Health Outcome of Interest

Year(s)

Target(s)

Predict the Influenza Season Challenge

ILI in the United States at the national/regional level

2013–14

Season onset, peak week, peak intensity, season duration

FluSight 2014–15

ILI in the United States at the national/regional level

2014–15

Season onset, peak week, peak intensity, weekly ILI percent 1–4 weeks ahead

Dengue Forecasting Project

Dengue cases in Iquitos, Peru and San Juan, Puerto Rico

2015

Timing of peak incidence, maximum weekly incidence, total number of cases in a transmission season

FluSight 2015–16

ILI in the United States at the national/regional level

2015–16

Season onset, peak week, peak intensity, weekly ILI percent 1–4 weeks ahead

FluSight 2016–17

ILI in the United States at the national/regional level

2016–17

Season onset, peak week, peak intensity, weekly ILI percent 1–4 weeks ahead

FluSight 2017–18

ILI in the United States at the national/regional level

2017–18

Season onset, peak week, peak intensity, weekly ILI percent 1–4 weeks ahead

State FluSight 2017–18

ILI in the United States at the state/territory level

2017–18

Peak week, peak intensity, weekly ILI percent 1–4 weeks ahead

Influenza Hospitalizations 2017–18

Influenza hospitalizations in the United States

2017–18

Peak week, peek weekly hospitalization rate, weekly hospitalization rates 1–4 weeks ahead

FluSight 2018–19

ILI in the United States at the national/regional level

2018–19

Season onset, peak week, peak intensity, weekly ILI percent 1–4 weeks ahead

State FluSight 2018–19

ILI in the United States at the state/territory level

2018–19

Peak week, peak intensity, weekly ILI percent 1–4 weeks ahead

Influenza Hospitalizations 2018–19

Influenza hospitalizations in the United States

2018–19

Peak week, peek weekly hospitalization rate, weekly hospitalization rates 1–4 weeks ahead

Aedes Challenge 2019

Aedes aegypti or Ae. Albopictus (vectors of chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever, and Zika viruses)

2019

Monthly presence of Aedes aegypti or Ae. albopictus

FluSight 2019–20

ILI in the United States at the national/regional level

2019–20 (future)

Season onset, peak week, peak intensity, weekly ILI percent 1–4 weeks ahead

State FluSight 2019–20

ILI in the United States at the state/territory level

2019–20 (future)

Peak week, peak intensity, weekly ILI percent 1–4 weeks ahead

Influenza Hospitalizations 2019–20

Influenza hospitalizations in the United States

2019–20 (future)

Peak week, peek weekly hospitalization rate, weekly hospitalization rates 1–4 weeks ahead