Girls | Boys | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

Null model | Model 1 ^{a} | Model 2 ^{b} | Null model | Model 1 ^{a} | Model 2 ^{b} | |

FIXED EFFECTS | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] |

White British (reference) | 0.46 [0.43,0.50] | 0.48 [0.44,0.52] | 0.18 [0.09,0.27] | 0.59 [0.55,0.62] | 0.56 [0.52,0.60] | 0.39 [0.30,0.49] |

Ethnicity | Coefficients | Coefficients | Coefficients | Coefficients | ||

White other | −0.05 [−0.15,0.05]P = 0.171 | −0.08 [−0.18,0.03]P = 0.072 | 0.17 [0.07,0.27] P < 0.001 | 0.15 [0.05,0.25] P = 0.002 | ||

Mixed ethnicity | −0.00 [− 0.10,0.10] P = 0.49 | −0.02 [− 0.11,0.08]P = 0.368 | 0.11 [0.02,0.20] P = 0.01 | 0.10 [0.00,0.19] P = 0.02 | ||

Indian | −0.25 [− 0.33,-0.18] P < 0.001 | −0.26 [− 0.34,-0.18]P < 0.001 | −0.03 [− 0.11,0.05]P = 0.215 | −0.03 [− 0.11,0.04]P = 0.205 | ||

Pakistani | − 0.08 [− 0.19,0.03]P = 0.065 | −0.13 [− 0.23,-0.02]P = 0.009 | −0.04 [− 0.14,0.06] P = 0.214 | −0.07 [− 0.17,0.034]P = 0.09 | ||

Bangladeshi | 0.15 [−0.02,0.32]P = 0.046 | 0.10 [− 0.07,0.27]P = 0.111 | 0.33 [0.16,0.50] P < 0.001 | 0.29 [0.12,0.46] P < 0.001 | ||

Other Asian backgrounds | −0.15 [− 0.28,-0.03]P = 0.01 | −0.17 [− 0.30,-0.05]P = 0.004 | 0.06 [− 0.06,0.17]P = 0.168 | 0.04 [− 0.08,0.16]P = 0.251 | ||

Black Caribbean | 0.41 [0.19,0.64]P < 0.001 | 0.40 [0.17,0.62]P < 0.001 | 0.00 [−0.23,0.23]P = 0.496 | −0.02 [− 0.24,0.21]P = 0.437 | ||

Black African | 0.19 [0.09,0.29]P < 0.001 | 0.14 [0.04,0.23] P = 0.004 | 0.17 [0.08,0.27] P < 0.001 | 0.14 [0.04,0.24] P = 0.003 | ||

Other Black Backgrounds | 0.41 [0.14,0.68]P = 0.001 | 0.37 [0.11,0.64]P = 0.002 | 0.27 [0.00,0.55]P = 0.024 | 0.25 [−0.02,0.53]P = 0.035 | ||

Chinese | −0.60 [−1.07,-0.26]P = 0.001 | − 0.66 [−1.07,-0.26]P = 0.001 | 0.10 [− 0.32,0.52]P = 0.317 | 0.10 [− 0.31,0.52]P = 0.312 | ||

Any other ethnic group | − 0.24 [− 0.46,0.00] P = 0.022 | −0.28 [− 0.50,-0.05]P = 0.009 | −0.06 [− 0.28,0.16]P = 0.302 | −0.08 [− 0.30,0.14]P = 0.234 | ||

School and neighbourhood covariates | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] | ||||

School IMD decile | 0.02 [0.01,0.04]P = 0.001 | 0.01 [−0.01,0.02]P = 0.188 | ||||

Neighbourhood IMD decile | 0.02 [0.01,0.04]P < 0.001 | 0.02 [0.01,0.03]P = 0.003 | ||||

RANDOM EFFECTS | ||||||

Decomposition of variance | % variance | % variance | % variance | % variance | % variance | % variance |

School level VPC | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% |

Neighbourhood level VPC | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% |

Child level VPC | 98.4% | 98.6% | 99.3% | 98.9% | 98.8% | 99.0% |

MODEL FIT | DIC | DIC | DIC | DIC | DIC | DIC |

Bayesian DIC | 41,352 | 41,272 | 41,254 | 42,615 | 42,591 | 42,585 |

Observations | 12,667 | 12,667 | 12,667 | 13,096 | 13,096 | 13,096 |