Data | Models | All cases | Deaths | Case fatality rate | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MAE | MAPE | RMSE | MAE | MAPE | RMSE | MAE | MAPE | RMSE | ||
All data | Negative binomial regression without random effects | 99.5 | 22.6 | 127.3 | 5.8 | 19.6 | 7.5 | 0.02 | 28.6 | 0.03 |
Negative binomial regression with random effects | 112.1 | 24.9 | 150.4 | 6.2 | 20.9 | 7.9 | 0.02 | 31.6 | 0.03 | |
SDM | 25.3 | 5.3 | 33.0 | 3.9 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 0.01 | 8.6 | 0.01 | |
1st quintile | Negative binomial regression without random effects | 118,1 | 44.7 | 139.8 | 4.3 | 18.4 | 6.5 | 0.02 | 58.2 | 0.03 |
Negative binomial regression with random effects | 106.7 | 38.5 | 128.3 | 4.8 | 20.6 | 7.1 | 0.02 | 62.4 | 0.03 | |
SDM | 16.9 | 6.1 | 20.5 | 2.2 | 7.7 | 2.8 | < 0.01 | 9.9 | < 0.01 | |
2nd quintile | Negative binomial regression without random effects | 81.9 | 21.2 | 109.4 | 5.9 | 20.5 | 7.6 | 0.01 | 22.2 | 0.02 |
Negative binomial regression with random effects | 113.9 | 29.1 | 162.9 | 6.9 | 23.0 | 8.4 | 0.02 | 32.0 | 0.02 | |
SDM | 21.1 | 5.4 | 26.9 | 3.0 | 7.8 | 3.8 | < 0.01 | 8.2 | 0.01 | |
3rd quintile | Negative binomial regression without random effects | 70.2 | 14.5 | 87.0 | 6.6 | 24.8 | 7.8 | 0.01 | 17.9 | 0.02 |
Negative binomial regression with random effects | 95.3 | 19.8 | 131.9 | 7.0 | 26.7 | 8.4 | 0.02 | 19.9 | 0.02 | |
SDM | 23.5 | 4.9 | 31.0 | 3.1 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 0.01 | 7.8 | 0.01 | |
4th quintile | Negative binomial regression without random effects | 82.0 | 14.3 | 103.9 | 6.6 | 19.9 | 8.4 | 0.01 | 13.4 | 0.02 |
Negative binomial regression with random effects | 117.9 | 20.6 | 150.5 | 7.1 | 21.2 | 8.7 | .0.01 | 12.2 | 0.02 | |
SDM | 29.7 | 5.2 | 38.4 | 3.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 0.01 | 8.1 | 0.01 | |
5th quintile | Negative binomial regression without random effects | 145.5 | 18.5 | 176.7 | 5.4 | 14.5 | 7.2 | 0.04 | 31.5 | 0.05 |
Negative binomial regression with random effects | 126.7 | 16.8 | 173.3 | 4.9 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 0.04 | 31.4 | 0.05 | |
SDM | 35.4 | 4.8 | 43.0 | 3.6 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 0.01 | 8.9 | 0.01 |