Table 1 Main model families and their characteristicsa
State transition models (Markov) | Life tables models | Attributable fraction models | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Model specifications | Sheffield | DYNAMO-HIA | Chronic disease model (CDM) | Life tables models | Comparative Risk Assessment | WHO-Choice | |
Design main characteristics | Individual, no interactions, no history | Aggregate, no interactions, no history | Aggregate, no interactions, no history | Aggregate, no interactions, no history | Aggregate, no interactions, no history | Hybrid Population state transition/CRA model, aggregate, no interactions, no history | |
Time Frame | Lifetime | 10 years | Lifetime | Lifetime | Lifetime | Lifetime | |
Main outcome | Disease Burden, cost-effectiveness | Mostly disease Burden | Disease Burden, cost-effectiveness | Mostly disease Burden | Mostly disease Burden | Disease Burden, cost-effectiveness | |
Target interventions: tax / price (other than tax) / availability / advertising / short Screening (drinking and driving) | Several interventions evaluated | Alcohol price (tax) | Screening and brief interventions, and alcohol tax | Several interventions evaluated | Several interventions evaluated, mostly tax | Several interventions evaluated | |
Key references | [40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,61,62,63,64,65,66,67] | ||||||
Objective | Clarity about the questions that the model aims to answer | Observed in all studies | Observed in all studies | Observed in all studies | Observed in all studies | Observed in all studies | Observed in all studies |
Description of the model structure (including formula) | Reported or referenced | Reported or referenced | Sometimes reported | Sometimes reported | Reported or referenced | Sometimes reported | |
Model Specification | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
Assumptions | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | |
Model family formulation and transparency | Derivations from the model (mentions if a specific dataset was developed) | Does not apply | Reported in all studies | Sometimes reported | Frequently reported | Does not apply | Sometimes reported |
Variables used in the model (response predictors, potential confounders) | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | Frequently reported | Frequently reported | Frequently reported | Reported in all studies | |
Method of parameter estimation and inference | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | Frequently reported | Frequently reported | Frequently reported | Frequently reported | |
Construction model process (Selection of variables) | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | Not available | Not available | Reported in all studies | Not available | |
Diagnosis and testing of model adequacy | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | |
Model Theoretical framework | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | Frequently reported | Frequently reported | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | |
Clear description of data | Data Sources | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | Frequently reported | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies |
Data collection method | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | Frequently reported | Frequently reported | Reported in all studies | Frequently reported | |
Process and size determination of the sample | Does not apply | Reported in all studies | Sometimes reported | Frequently reported | Does not apply | Does not apply | |
Evaluation method (measurement data) | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | |
Model family findings: If information is available | Needed indicators (BoD measure / prevalence / incidence) | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | Frequently reported | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies |
Standard errors and 95% confidence intervals | Not reported | Not reported | Reported in all studies | Frequently reported | Frequently reported | Reported in all studies | |
Statistical adjustment model | Not reported | Not reported | Not reported | Not reported | Sometimes reported | Not reported | |
Calibration with real data | Does not apply | Not reported | Not reported | Not reported | Not reported | Not reported | |
Validation | If model validation was undertaken | Frequently reported | Not reported | Not reported | Not reported | Not reported | Not reported |
Sensitivity analysis | Sensitivity analysis was conducted | Reported in all studies | Not available | Reported in all studies | Frequently reported | Frequently reported | Reported in all studies |
Missing data | If there is some explanation | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Sometimes reported | Not available |
Dissemination and involvement of experts | If the model is released before the end of the development or application of the model | Reported in all studies | Not available | Not available | Reported in all studies | Frequently reported | Reported in all studies |
If expert opinions were incorporated to develop the model | Reported in all studies | Not available | Not available | Not available | Frequently reported | Reported in all studies | |
Involvement of decision makers | Involvement of decision makers in the development model | Reported in all studies | Not available | Not available | Not available | Sometimes reported | Reported in all studies |
If a policy is recommended based on the results derived from the model | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | Frequently reported | Frequently reported | Frequently reported | Reported in all studies | |
Discussion of limitations | If possible methodological limitations of the model were discussed | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | Frequently reported | Frequently reported | Reported in all studies |
If the model is available and accessible to the user | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | Not available | Not available | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | |
Reproducibility | If data are available | Frequently reported | Reported in all studies | Not available | Not available | Sometimes reported | Reported in all studies |
If the codes are available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | |
If there is availability of a user manual model | Not available | Reported in all studies | Not available | Not available | Frequently reported | Reported in all studies | |
Area of application | UK | Europe | National | National | Multiple areas | National | |
Country/ies | Reported in all studies | Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Switzerland and Britain. | Holland | Australia | Reported in all studies | Various | |
Sex | Reported in all studies (data by sex) | Reported in all studies (data by sex) | Reported in all studies (data by sex) | Not specified | Reported in all studies (data by sex) | Reported in all studies (data by sex) | |
Age subgroups | Reported in all studies | Over 16 years. Categories every 10 years. | Reported in all studies population (no categories) | Reported in all studies population (no categories) | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | |
Considers episodic risk consumption? | Yes | No | No | No | Yes | No | |
Consider the context of consumption (detrimental level)? | Not reported | No | Not reported | Not reported | Frequently reported | Reported in all studies | |
Categories used commonly consumed gr / day | Moderate (up to 21 units [10 ml of neat alcohol] per week for men and 14 units for women) /Hazardous (21–50 units men, and 14–35 women and Harmful (more than 50 units for men and more than 35 for women) | Alcohol consumption is measured by five categories of daily intake of grams of pure alcohol: 0–< 0.25 g/d, 0.25–< 20 g/d, 20–< 40 g/d, 40–< 60 g/d, ≥60 g/d. | for women: abstinence (no alcohol consumption), moderate (less than two standard drink units per day), excessive consumption (between two and four per day), and dangerous consumption (more than four per day), for men: abstinence (same), moderate consumption (fewer than four per day), excessive consumption (between four and six per day) and dangerous consumption (more than six per day) | Results in decrease in net grams or drinks (standard units) per day | Drinker I (females 0–19.99 g pure alcohol daily, males 0–39.99 g pure alcohol), Drinker II (females 20–39.99 g pure alcohol, males 40–59.99 g pure alcohol) and Drinker III (females ≥40 g pure alcohol, males ≥60 g pure alcohol). | Heavy or Dangerous (> 20 g per day for women and > 40 g per day for men) | |
Consumption categories denomination | Moderate, hazardous and harmful | Not reported | Abstinence moderate, excessive and hazardous | Low, Harmful, Hazardous (WHO classification) | Drinkers I, II, III, (g/d). Sometimes differential category patterned | Alcohol consumption or dangerous heavy | |
Reference category to calculate risks | Abstention | Abstention | Abstention | Abstention | Depends on the condition | Depends on the condition | |
Incorporate elasticity (price, consumer demand) | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | Frequently reported | Reported in all studies | |
Mortality from causes related health | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | |
How many diseases or ICD codes incorporates? (number) | 47 | 9 | Not available | 13 | Variable | Variable | |
Hospitalizations for related health conditions | Reported in all studies | Not reported | Sometimes reported | Reported in all studies | Frequently reported | Reported in all studies | |
Includes damage to third parties (crime, AFS) | Reported in all studies | Not reported | Not reported | Reported in all studies | Sometimes reported | Not reported | |
Incorporates indirect costs (labor productivity, absenteeism, unemployment) | Reported in all studies | Not reported | Not reported | Not reported | Not reported | Not reported | |
Incorporates quality of life / disability (DALYs, QALYs) | Reported in all studies | Not available | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | Reported in all studies | |