n (%) | Empty model | Model 1 | p-value | Model 2 | p-value | Model 3 | p-value | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Constant | 7.58 | 9.13 | < 0.001 | 9.12 | < 0.001 | 9.12 | < 0.001 | ||
Fixed effects | |||||||||
Country overall unemployment | −0.04 | 0.011 | −0.04 | 0.014 | − 0.04 | 0.016 | |||
Year-specific unemployment | 0.01 | 0.213 | 0.01 | 0.127 | 0.01 | 0.119 | |||
Sex (girl) | 197,892 (51.2) | −0.18 | < 0.001 | −0.18 | < 0.001 | − 0.18 | < 0.001 | ||
Age | 11 years | 127,083 (32.9) | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
13 years | 132,581 (34.3) | −0.45 | < 0.001 | − 0.45 | < 0.001 | −0.45 | < 0.001 | ||
15 years | 126,738 (32.8) | −0.77 | < 0.001 | −0.77 | < 0.001 | − 0.77 | < 0.001 | ||
Wave | 2001/02 | 107,786 (27.9) | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | ||||
2005/06 | 142,024 (36.8) | 0.05 | 0.212 | 0.05 | 0.229 | 0.05 | 0.234 | ||
2009/10 | 136,592 (35.4) | 0.04 | 0.327 | 0.04 | 0.337 | 0.04 | 0.350 | ||
Family situation | Parents separated | 97,219 (25.1) | −0.46 | < 0.001 | −0.46 | < 0.001 | |||
Unemployed parents | None | 365,848 (94.7) | 1 | 1 | |||||
Father | 7156 (1.9) | −0.38 | < 0.001 | − 0.17 | 0.007 | ||||
Mother | 12,294 (3.2) | −0.21 | < 0.001 | −0.25 | < 0.001 | ||||
Both parents | 1104 (0.3) | −0.49 | < 0.001 | −0.08 | 0.636 | ||||
Interactions | |||||||||
Country unemployment * Father unemployed | −0.02 | 0.001 | |||||||
Country unemployment * Mother unemployed | 0.004 | 0.547 | |||||||
Country unemployment * Both parents unemployed | −0.04 | 0.005 | |||||||
Random effects | |||||||||
Country variance (% change from previous model)d | 0.076 | 0.049 (−34.9%) | 0.049 (−1.1%) | 0.049 (−0.2%) | |||||
Country-year variance (% change from previous model)d | 0.015 | 0.016 (8.7%) | 0.016 (−0.8%) | 0.016 (−0.4%) | |||||
School variance (% change from previous model)d | 0.164 | 0.068 (−58.6%) | 0.067 (−0.5%) | 0.067 (0%) | |||||
Individual variance (% change from previous model)d | 3.296 | 3.217(−2.4%) | 3.213(−0.1%) | 3.213 (0%) | |||||
Log likelihood | − 784,253.4 | − 779,415.8 | − 776,821.08 | −776,811.3 | |||||
Likelihood ratio testc | p < 0.001 | p < 0.001 | p < 0.001 | p < 0.001 |