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Table 4 Predictors of attrition from care after 12 months follow-up after down-referral

From: Effective public-private partnerships for sustainable antiretroviral therapy: outcomes of the Right to Care health services GP down-referral program

 Deceased / LTFUn (%)Person-yearsRate per 100 person-years (95% CI)HR (95% CI)aHR (95% CI)
Study cohort333 (12.0)2480.213.4 (12.1–14.9)  
 GP down-referred42 (11.3)364.511.5 (8.5–15.6)11
 Clinic A controls109 (5.9)1681.16.5 (5.4–7.8)0.6 (0.4–0.8)0.5 (0.3–0.7)
 Clinic B controls182 (33.2)434.541.9 (36.2–48.4)3.6 (2.6–5.1)4.2 (2.8–6.5)
Sex
 Female213 (11.7)1627.913.1 (11.4–15.0)1 
 Male120 (12.6)852.314.1 (11.8–16.8)1.1 (0.9–1.3) 
Age at down-referral/eligibility (years)
 18–29.9939 (11.7)302.012.9 (9.4–17.6)1 
 30–39.99118 (10.3)1032.011.4 (9.5–13.7)0.9 (0.6–1.3) 
 40–49.99118 (13.1)801.014.7 (12.3–17.6)1.1 (0.8–1.6) 
 50+58 (14.9)344.516.8 (13.0–21.8)1.3 (0.9–1.9) 
Nationality
 South African323 (13.3)2167.914.9 (13.4–16.6)11
 Non-South African10 (3.0)312.33.2 (1.7–6.0)0.2 (0.1–0.4)0.2 (0.1–0.6)
Education level
 Primary school or less70 (13.9)450.615.5 (12.3–19.6)1.0 (0.8–1.3)1.0 (0.7–1.4)
 Some secondary school60 (8.3)665.89.0 (7.0–11.6)0.6 (0.4–0.8)1.1 (0.7–1.6)
  > =Grade 12179 (13.5)1173.215.3 (13.2–17.7)11
Employment status
 Employed143 (9.9)1314.710.9 (9.2–12.8)11
 Unemployed174 (13.7)1117.315.6 (13.4–18.1)1.4 (1.1–1.8)1.0 (0.7–1.3)
Time on ART at down-referral/eligibility (years)
 1–2.99 year202 (12.9)1386.014.6 (12.7–16.7)11
 3–4.99 years58 (9.1)589.19.8 (7.6–12.7)0.7 (0.5–0.9)1.1 (0.7–1.7)
  > =5 years73 (12.9)505.114.5 (11.5–18.2)1.0 (0.8–1.3)1.9 (1.2–3.0)
Guideline year of ART initiation
 2004–2010156 (9.5)1495.510.4 (8.9–12.2)11
 2010–2014177 (15.7)984.618.0 (15.5–20.8)1.7 (1.4–2.1)1.1 (0.5–1.6)
Baseline CD4 (cells/μl)
 250–349.990 (10.6)774.511.6 (9.5–14.3)0.8 (0.6–0.99)0.7 (0.5–1.0)
 350–499.9111 (11.8)842.413.2 (10.9–15.9)0.9 (0.7–1.1)0.8 (0.6–1.1)
  > =500132 (13.4)863.315.3 (12.9–18.1)11
Baseline Haemoglobin (g/dL)1816.612.1 (10.6–13.8)0.9 (0.8–1.0) 
Baseline VL (copies/mL)
  < 50218 (13.0)1499.114.5 (12.7–16.6)11
 50–14951(9.4)489.110.4 (7.9–13.7)0.7 (0.5–0.97)0.8 (0.6–1.2)
 150–29943 (10.9)355.112.1 (9.0–16.3)0.8 (0.6–1.2)1.3 (0.9–1.8)
 300–39920 (13.3)135.514.8 (9.5–22.9)1.0 (0.6–1.6)1.5 (0.9–2.7)
Baseline BMI (kg/m2)
 Normal142 (10.7)1213.511.7 (9.9–13.8)11
 Overweight57 (8.1)654.28.7 (6.7–11.3)0.7 (0.5–1.0)0.7 (0.5–0.9)
 Obese50 (11.7)385.213.0 (9.8–17.0)1.1 (0.8–1.5)1.0 (0.7–1.4)
ART regimen
 TDF + 3TC/FTC + EFV/NVP185 (16.7)967.119.1 (16.6–22.1)11
 AZT + 3TC + EFV/NVP11 (7.8)126.58.7 (4.8–15.7)0.5 (0.2–0.8)0.5 (0.2–1.1)
 d4T + 3TC + EFV/NVP136 (9.2)1355.310.0 (8.5–11.9)0.5 (0.4–0.7)0.4 (0.2–0.7)
  1. HR, hazard ratio, aHR, adjusted hazard ratio, 95% CI, 95% confidence interval, PY, person-years