Table 4 Predictors of attrition from care after 12 months follow-up after down-referral
Deceased / LTFUn (%) | Person-years | Rate per 100 person-years (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) | aHR (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Study cohort | 333 (12.0) | 2480.2 | 13.4 (12.1–14.9) | ||
GP down-referred | 42 (11.3) | 364.5 | 11.5 (8.5–15.6) | 1 | 1 |
Clinic A controls | 109 (5.9) | 1681.1 | 6.5 (5.4–7.8) | 0.6 (0.4–0.8) | 0.5 (0.3–0.7) |
Clinic B controls | 182 (33.2) | 434.5 | 41.9 (36.2–48.4) | 3.6 (2.6–5.1) | 4.2 (2.8–6.5) |
Sex | |||||
Female | 213 (11.7) | 1627.9 | 13.1 (11.4–15.0) | 1 | |
Male | 120 (12.6) | 852.3 | 14.1 (11.8–16.8) | 1.1 (0.9–1.3) | |
Age at down-referral/eligibility (years) | |||||
18–29.99 | 39 (11.7) | 302.0 | 12.9 (9.4–17.6) | 1 | |
30–39.99 | 118 (10.3) | 1032.0 | 11.4 (9.5–13.7) | 0.9 (0.6–1.3) | |
40–49.99 | 118 (13.1) | 801.0 | 14.7 (12.3–17.6) | 1.1 (0.8–1.6) | |
50+ | 58 (14.9) | 344.5 | 16.8 (13.0–21.8) | 1.3 (0.9–1.9) | |
Nationality | |||||
South African | 323 (13.3) | 2167.9 | 14.9 (13.4–16.6) | 1 | 1 |
Non-South African | 10 (3.0) | 312.3 | 3.2 (1.7–6.0) | 0.2 (0.1–0.4) | 0.2 (0.1–0.6) |
Education level | |||||
Primary school or less | 70 (13.9) | 450.6 | 15.5 (12.3–19.6) | 1.0 (0.8–1.3) | 1.0 (0.7–1.4) |
Some secondary school | 60 (8.3) | 665.8 | 9.0 (7.0–11.6) | 0.6 (0.4–0.8) | 1.1 (0.7–1.6) |
> =Grade 12 | 179 (13.5) | 1173.2 | 15.3 (13.2–17.7) | 1 | 1 |
Employment status | |||||
Employed | 143 (9.9) | 1314.7 | 10.9 (9.2–12.8) | 1 | 1 |
Unemployed | 174 (13.7) | 1117.3 | 15.6 (13.4–18.1) | 1.4 (1.1–1.8) | 1.0 (0.7–1.3) |
Time on ART at down-referral/eligibility (years) | |||||
1–2.99 year | 202 (12.9) | 1386.0 | 14.6 (12.7–16.7) | 1 | 1 |
3–4.99 years | 58 (9.1) | 589.1 | 9.8 (7.6–12.7) | 0.7 (0.5–0.9) | 1.1 (0.7–1.7) |
> =5 years | 73 (12.9) | 505.1 | 14.5 (11.5–18.2) | 1.0 (0.8–1.3) | 1.9 (1.2–3.0) |
Guideline year of ART initiation | |||||
2004–2010 | 156 (9.5) | 1495.5 | 10.4 (8.9–12.2) | 1 | 1 |
2010–2014 | 177 (15.7) | 984.6 | 18.0 (15.5–20.8) | 1.7 (1.4–2.1) | 1.1 (0.5–1.6) |
Baseline CD4 (cells/μl) | |||||
250–349.9 | 90 (10.6) | 774.5 | 11.6 (9.5–14.3) | 0.8 (0.6–0.99) | 0.7 (0.5–1.0) |
350–499.9 | 111 (11.8) | 842.4 | 13.2 (10.9–15.9) | 0.9 (0.7–1.1) | 0.8 (0.6–1.1) |
> =500 | 132 (13.4) | 863.3 | 15.3 (12.9–18.1) | 1 | 1 |
Baseline Haemoglobin (g/dL) | – | 1816.6 | 12.1 (10.6–13.8) | 0.9 (0.8–1.0) | |
Baseline VL (copies/mL) | |||||
< 50 | 218 (13.0) | 1499.1 | 14.5 (12.7–16.6) | 1 | 1 |
50–149 | 51(9.4) | 489.1 | 10.4 (7.9–13.7) | 0.7 (0.5–0.97) | 0.8 (0.6–1.2) |
150–299 | 43 (10.9) | 355.1 | 12.1 (9.0–16.3) | 0.8 (0.6–1.2) | 1.3 (0.9–1.8) |
300–399 | 20 (13.3) | 135.5 | 14.8 (9.5–22.9) | 1.0 (0.6–1.6) | 1.5 (0.9–2.7) |
Baseline BMI (kg/m2) | |||||
Normal | 142 (10.7) | 1213.5 | 11.7 (9.9–13.8) | 1 | 1 |
Overweight | 57 (8.1) | 654.2 | 8.7 (6.7–11.3) | 0.7 (0.5–1.0) | 0.7 (0.5–0.9) |
Obese | 50 (11.7) | 385.2 | 13.0 (9.8–17.0) | 1.1 (0.8–1.5) | 1.0 (0.7–1.4) |
ART regimen | |||||
TDF + 3TC/FTC + EFV/NVP | 185 (16.7) | 967.1 | 19.1 (16.6–22.1) | 1 | 1 |
AZT + 3TC + EFV/NVP | 11 (7.8) | 126.5 | 8.7 (4.8–15.7) | 0.5 (0.2–0.8) | 0.5 (0.2–1.1) |
d4T + 3TC + EFV/NVP | 136 (9.2) | 1355.3 | 10.0 (8.5–11.9) | 0.5 (0.4–0.7) | 0.4 (0.2–0.7) |