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Table 4 Epidemic detection methods with the ten lowest FARs

From: Methods for detecting seasonal influenza epidemics using a school absenteeism surveillance system

Model

Data Type

Parameters

FAR

ADD

Seasonal Mixed, D.O.W.

ES-allavg (Int.)

l = 7, Θ = 0.20

0.299

15.13

Seasonal Mixed

ES-allavg (Del.)

l = 11, Θ = 0.25

0.313

23.63

Seasonal Mixed, D.O.W.

ES-allavg (Del.)

l = 15, Θ = 0.25

0.333

21.50

Seasonal LR

ES-allavg (Del.)

l = 5, Θ = 0.25

0.344

23.00

Seasonal GEE

ES-top (Int.)

l = 1, Θ = 0.15

0.350

14.29

Seasonal GEE

ES-allavg (Del.)

l = 7, Θ = 0.25

0.350

23.13

Seasonal GEE

ES-3avg (Del.)

l = 15, Θ = 0.25

0.375

29.38

Seasonal LR

ES.SS-allavg (Del.)

l = 11, Θ = 0.30

0.375

31.75

Seasonal GEE, DOW

ES-allavg (Del.)

l = 11, Θ = 0.30

0.375

33.13

Seasonal GEE, DOW

ES.SS-allavg (Del.)

l = 8, Θ = 0.30

0.375

33.13

  1. Del. = Missing values deleted, Int. = Missing values linearly interpolated
  2. See Table 2 for aggregation abbreviations